WHEN THE next general election is called before or sometime in 2007 Jamaicans, by an overwhelming majority, say they are not expecting to see either Prime Minister P.J. Patterson, President of the ruling People's National Party, or Edward Seaga, Leader of the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party, as candidates.
According to the latest Gleaner-commissioned poll, most Jamaicans are also of the view that both Mr. Patterson and Mr. Seaga have done their last electoral waltz and should be bowing out as leaders of their respective parties before or early in 2004.
The poll, conducted by pollster Don Anderson and his team of researchers from Market Research Services Ltd., was done from September 15 to 24 and involved 1,000 interviews with persons 18 years and over throughout the island's 14 parishes. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 per cent.
TIMETABLE FOR DEPARTURES
When the question was posed as to whether Mr. Patterson and Mr. Seaga will be around for any future general election, 67 per cent say the PNP President will go as compared with 63 per cent for the JLP leader. Asked about a timetable for the departures, 56 per cent said that for Mr. Patterson it will be before or early in 2004 and 69 per cent had Mr. Seaga leaving within that same time line.
Prior to the October 2002 General Election, which saw the governing People's National Party winning a historic fourth term, the Prime Minister told a Gleaner Editors' Forum that that general election would be his last as Prime Minister and leader of his party. He has since restated that position on several occasions.
Mr. Seaga, however, has made no such commitment. In fact, it has been said within political circles that, the Opposition Leader, buoyed by his party's victory in the June 19 Local Government elections, could be counting on an unpopular PNP Government being forced to call elections way before 2007 which could give him and his party another shot at government.
While the issue of succession within the ranks of the JLP, especially with uncertainties surrounding Mr. Seaga, is still a guessing game, within the PNP it is a lot more clear-cut.
Tomorrow: Who should replace Mr. Patterson as President of the PNP and who should replace Mr. Seaga as Leader of the JLP? The People's Verdict.
