D.K. Duncan THE POLITICAL stage has been set. The leading actors and the supporting casts are in place. The curtain has been raised for the two major productions to begin. Within two years, the audiences as well as the critics will make a judgement as to which production can move from Act 1 to Act 11.
TRANSFORMATION VS REFORM
The People's National Party (PNP) has labelled its production 'Transformation, Renewal, Modernisation and Reposi-tioning' in a word 'transformation'. The PNP Leader announced this at a post-retreat press conference last Monday. Extensive speaking notes expanded on the nature of this process of transformation.
The Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) Leader has named their production 'reform'. He was clearly reacting to recent public assertions that the JLP was divided into two identifiable groupings the Reformists and the Traditionalists. Speaking at a recent Service club Luncheon he presented a 1995 document - 'The JLP: Developing a New Political Order' as the basis for his claim that there is no division on the party's commitment to Reform.
The PNP's transformation is directed essentially to the Party. It recognises, at least on paper, that 'it cannot be business as usual'. It speaks of a 'return in many respects to the fundamental reason we were formed in 1938'.
In this regard, it is more a rebirth possibly a recognition of having abandoned some of its core principles. More openness and inclusiveness are posited as critical elements of this transformation. The Party recognises that this is a process that is not 'achieved overnight'. Time is not on their side.
The JLP Leader's Reformism puts more emphasis on the State. Constitutional and Parliamentary reforms dominate the 1995 document. Eight years have passed since this document was presented. A cursory examination suggests several inconsistencies in its advocacy over the years. These inconsistencies are mainly in the areas of fundamental reforms. Those persons now perceived as the reformists seem more open to fundamental changes as well as internal party reforms. Time also is not on their side.
TIME
Barring any major social unrest arising from measures taken to fix the fragile economy, these two productions Transformation and Reform should have only two years to run. By the September, 2005 PNP Conference, or a Novem-ber, 2005 JLP Conference, the Parties will already be in a mode of election preparedness. The prospect of Local Government Elections due by June, 2006 will more than likely signal the start of the General Elections campaign.
THE LEAD ACTORS
Any questions of leadership not settled by 2005 will be problematic for either cast. It is clear and credible that the PNP President will demit office by 2005. In the tradition of the PNP, leadership succession has been competitive but not disabling. The Norman Manley to Michael Manley transition survived the Blake/Michael Manley leadership contest. The Michael Manley to P.J. Patterson baton was passed smoothly despite the Patterson/Simpson contest. The Patterson to Simpson Miller, Phillips, Blythe or Davies change may be more challenging but the Party has demonstrated its resilience in this area.
The major challenge to this timetable for transition is the parlous state of the economy. It is also this fragile state of the economy which provides the main hope for the present JLP Leader that he may return to Jamaica House for a last shot at history. It would take social unrest of a particular and qualitatively different kind to so catapult Edward Seaga into office. The uncertainty which clouds a Seaga to Golding or Shaw transition poses severe challenges for the kind of work necessary for General Secretary Karl Samuda and his team to build a winning organisation.
THE AUDIENCE
Both Parties say that they recognise the growing role and influence of Civil Society. The PNP asserts that a central plank of the outreach will be a structured programme of dialogue with Civil Society'. The Transformation notes recognise that 'winning elections is not an end in itself'. It emphasises accountability and transparency from "elected and other representatives".
The 1995 JLP Reform document recognises that 'fertile ground' had been created 'for alternative action by Civil Society which is displacing the political parties, demanding space in the system to share in the process of governance'. Change, Renewal, Transparency and Accountability are also the language of the Reformists.
In two years or less, it will become clear whether any of these two productions can proceed to Act 11 or remain a 'tale told by a fool, full of sound and fury signifying nothing'. One Love, One Heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former General Secretary and Cabinet Minister in the PNP Administration of the 1970s.
