Tony BeccaTHE WEST Indies will open their four-match Test series against South Africa at the Wanderers in Johannesburg tomorrow morning (Ja time) and all things considered, the home team must be favourites to win it.
Winners of two of the three series between the teams - including a commanding 5-0 shutout in 1998-99, South Africa are ahead on every count in a statistical comparison.
In matches won, they lead 7-2 from 11; highest team totals, they have on record 406 for eight declared at home and 454 away in comparison to the West Indies' 387 at home and 271 away.
Lowest totals, they have fallen for 195 at home and 141 away against the West Indies' 140 at home and 121 away; centuries for, it is 10 for South Africa and one for the West Indies with Daryll Cullinan's 168 representing the highest for South Africa and Ridley Jacob's 113 not out the best for the West Indies, and in the category of most wickets in a match, the best for either team is nine by Shaun Pollock and eight by Curtly Ambrose.
If that is not enough to make South Africa hot favourites, the Proteas are No. 2 in the rankings, the Windies are down the ladder at No. 8, since 1998 they have not won a Test series away from home against Australia, South Africa, England, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and New Zealand, against those teams, in that period they have won only two Test matches away from home against those teams - one in England and one in India when the series was already decided.
On top of that, although they won the two-match series against Zimbabwe 1-0 a few weeks ago, that was after hanging on to draw the first Test and after looking down the barrel in the second Test after leaving the home team 233 to win it.
WIN ALL FOUR
"It would be nice to win all four matches," said home captain Graeme Smith a few days ago, and looking at the statistics, without looking closely at the two teams, it would seem that that is how it will end.
It could, however, end differently. As slim it may be, the West Indies have a chance, for although the pitches in South Africa favour good pacers, even though in Shaun Pollock, Makhaya Ntini and Andre Nel, South Africa parade some good and experienced ones, and although it will be asking a lot of their young bowlers if the West Indies, particularly their batsmen, are at the top of their form they could, with a little luck, enjoy sweet revenge for the embarrassment suffered during their previous visit.
South Africa, it should be remembered, are coming off a 1-0 defeat in Pakistan and as good as the left-handed Smith is as an opening batsman, as good as Nel may be as a pacer, as talented as Martin van Jaarsveld may be as a batsman, as Jacques Rudolph may be as a left-handed batsman and slow left-arm spinner, as Neil McKenzie may be as a batsman, and as Andrew Hall may be as a pacer and although Gary Kirsten, Jacques Kallis, Herschelle Gibbs, Mark Boucher, Pollock and Ntini are still around, without a fast bowler like Allan Donald, without a captain and a middle-order batsman like Hansie Cronje, without a middle-order batsman and fielder like Jonty Rhodes, and without a seam bowler like David Terbrugge, South Africa are not what South Africa were in 1998-99.
On top of that, although they did not look like world-beaters against Zimbabwe, in some respects this West Indies team is better or should be better than that of 1998-99.
Although there is no Carl Hooper, no Ambrose and no Courtney Walsh, this West Indies team will have Chris Gayle and Wavell Hinds at the top of the batting instead of Clayton Lambert and Philo Wallace.
TWO GOOD YOUNG BATSMEN
This West Indies team still has Brian Lara and Shivnarine Chanderpaul as batsmen, this West Indies team has two good young batsmen in Ramnaresh Sarwan and Daren Ganga, this West Indies team will not be destroyed by poor team spirit as was that of 1998-99 following the strike that led to a stand-off in London, and unlike the last time when captain Lara and the players were hardly on speaking terms and the team was like a bunch of strangers, this time Lara and the players seem to be hitting it off together and are like brothers.
The West Indies main concern must be their bowling.
If their batsmen approach the business of scoring runs better than they did in Zimbabwe, there is a good chance of them doing well - especially if Lara and Chanderpaul get going early.
To win a match, to win the series, will depend, however, on their bowlers, and with Mervyn Dillon and Vasbert Drakes, the senior bowlers as far as experience is concerned, being far from impressive, a lot will depend on pacers Fidel Edwards, Ravi Rampaul and Corey Collymore, on rookie spinner Dave Mohammed, and against batsmen the calibre of Kirsten, Gibbs and Kallis, that may be asking a lot of a set of young bowlers - two of whom, Rampaul and Mohammed, have never played in a Test match.
Can the West Indies knock off South Africa? The odds are against that happening - no question about that.
It is, however, not impossible - certainly not as impossible as some may think.
Edwards is a dangerous customer, remembering how legspinner Danish Kaneira baffled South Africa's batsmen recently, left-arm wrist spinner Mohammed could be dangerous, and if the batsmen bat well, if they score enough runs to put the home team's batsmen under pressure to score runs, it could be interesting - very interesting.
The start could be the key, and with Kirsten out of the first Test in the 'Bull Ring', with Paul Adams not selected, even if they do not win the match, it is a good opportunity for the West Indies to show their mettle - to let the South Africans know that they will be no walkover this time around.
