John Rapley - Foreign Focus IN RECENT months, al Qaeda appears to have shifted the focus of its attacks to Saudi Arabia. As I have noted before, this is not surprising, since Osama bin Laden's personal war has always been with the Saudi monarchy.
The house of Saud is divided against itself, and its enemies are apparently trying to aggravate these tensions in order to bring down the government. This poses a serious dilemma for Saudi Arabia's principal foreign backer, the United States.
The US has long supported the Saudi regime for one simple reason: oil. It is not so much that the Saudi kingdom sits atop vast reserves. Arguably, what matters more is Saudi Arabia's geographic location, occupying as it does the western banks of the Persian Gulf.
Most of the world's oil exports pass through the Gulf. At one time, it was ringed by US-friendly governments. However, the fall of Iran's shah in the 1979 Islamic revolution rendered oil-tankers decidedly more vulnerable to hostile agents. And when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, the region looked like it could come under the sway of unfriendly governments. That was more than the US could abide.
OIL SUPPLY
It is not that the US depends on the Persian Gulf for its oil supply, for it does not. In fact, the Gulf's share of US oil consumption has actually declined. Yet the Gulf remains essential to US economic interests for one key reason: since most of the world's exports originate there, it means that the world price of oil is heavily-influenced by supply conditions in the Gulf.
In a crisis, the US could likely find oil elsewhere to make up for supplies lost from the Persian Gulf. The problem is that any reductions in Gulf exports would lead to higher prices. The US is an energy-intensive and inefficient economy, especially relative to its European counterparts. When oil prices surge, the inflationary impact in the US is greater than it is elsewhere. As a result, American competitiveness declines.
In the 1970s, when there was a sustained increase in the price of oil, the American economy suffered badly from European and Japanese competition. Therefore, the US economy depends on energy prices remaining low. That means world oil markets must be kept well-supplied (even by oil that does not ultimately reach the US). Thus, for better or for worse, the US government has to keep oil flowing out of the Persian Gulf.
In a region of unstable regimes, Saudi Arabia has been a loyal ally. But the relationship is one about which both parties remain ambivalent. The Saudi monarchy needs US support to fend off both hostile neighbours and domestic foes. The US, for its part, needs the Saudi presence as a bulwark in the Gulf.
However, many Americans wonder what business their government has propping up an illiberal autocracy. Moreover, some ask openly, with friends like the Saudis, who needs enemies? It is no secret that most of the 9/11 attackers were Saudi citizens, while the incident received scant condemnation from some prominent Saudis.
This is because the Saudi royal family is deeply divided. There are, roughly, two factions, the reformists and the hard-liners. Reform is a relative term, though. Hardly anybody in the Saudi establishment wants to do away with Islamic law and the monarchy. But some, including reportedly the crown prince, would be willing to see a weakening of the clerics' power.
Any loosening of religious control would be anathema to some other princes, however, who would instead prefer to reduce Saudi ties to the West. It would appear that al Qaeda is doing what it can to tip the balance in favour of hard-liners with its bombing campaign. Whether or not its strategy will work, though, remains unclear.
In the meantime, the Americans find themselves facing a difficult choice: do they stand by a regime they need, or abandon what might be a sinking ship? Some conservatives in the administration seem to have opted for an end-run, seizing Iraq as a new base from which to launch a democratic wave that could actually undermine the existing Saudi regime.
But that, too, is risky. The White House has opted for caution, and outwardly continues to stand by the Saudi government. The struggle for the country is thus likely to grow more intense.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department
of Government, UWI, Mona.
