John Rapley - FOREIGN FOCUSIN HIS State of the Union address on Tuesday, US President George W. Bush set the tone for this year's presidential election campaign. As Democrats do increasingly fierce battle among themselves for their party's nomination, Mr. Bush used the podium to project the image of himself as Commander-in-Chief.
Nonetheless, he wasted no time in staking out his positions and speaking to his core supporters. After seizing the high ground on Iraq and the war on terror, where polls indicate he is at present most secure, Mr. Bush began moving outwards into some of the more treacherous territory he will need to capture between now and election day.
On domestic policy and social issues, Democrats still hold the ground. Mr. Bush will need to lure some swing voters from them if he is to hold the White House next November.
FREEDOM TO MANOEUVRE
Mr. Bush also tossed a few nuggets to his Republican base, but he did not need to go out of his way to win them back. Republicans are more motivated and mobilised than they have been in a long time, and conservatives like this President. This gives him more freedom to manoeuvre than his Democratic rivals, at least for the time being.
Nevertheless, if Mr. Bush's speech retreated into the safe declarations of an election manifesto, it amounted to something of a gamble. In fact, the months ahead may reveal it to have been a huge wager, since the President inadvertently or otherwise - left a few hostages to fortune.
Mr. Bush claimed that his Iraq policy was working. He also maintained that America was safer for it, and he pointed out that there had been no more attacks on US soil since 9/11. At present, most Americans are telling pollsters they share the President's confident assessment, particularly since this speech follows a string of symbolic successes for him, most notable of which was the capture of Saddam Hussein.
WAR ON TERROR
However, public opinion on Iraq remains fickle. It was only a couple of months ago that the President's Iraq policy seemed to be floundering, energising the Democratic anti-war constituency. The election is still nine months away. Between now and then, there remains a fair possibility that on one of these fronts Iraq or the war on terror the US will suffer some kind of setback.
When the two are taken together, the odds of a setback may become better than even. Indeed, it could even come to pass that excerpts from the Tuesday speech are used in campaign commercials next year by Democrats.
EVENLY, AND DEEPLY, SPLIT
That raises the question of whether Democrats will be able to capitalise on any stumbling Mr. Bush does between now and the election. The notion floated briefly late last year by some political analysts that the capture of Saddam Hussein made Bush unbeatable has been quickly discarded. Recent polls suggest the country is evenly, and deeply, split. Moreover, the high turnout in Monday's Democratic caucuses in Iowa suggests that Democratic voters are angry and mobilised.
What is difficult to predict is whether the candidates, and in particular the eventual winner of the Democratic nomination, will be able to sustain this degree of enthusiasm. My own view is that in such an evenly-divided electorate, victory will go to the party which can hold its base. This hurt Democrats in both 2000 and 2002, when Republicans showed higher turnout rates than Democrats.
GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT
Lately, the Democratic campaign has been re-energising the party's base. In particular, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has ignited a grassroots movement that is apparently bringing disaffected supporters back into the fold.
Therefore, the danger for Democrats is that a bruising primary season may turn off supporters of defeated candidates.
If, for example, Dr. Dean loses to someone seen as an establishment candidate, there is a real risk that many of his supporters will stay home in November (as he has already averred might happen).
I always maintained that the 2000 election was Mr. Bush's to lose, because eight years of Bill Clinton had alienated the Democratic left while turning out the Republican right. It will be different in 2004. This election will be the Democrats' to win. But they will have to play their cards right, and that will be a tricky business.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
