By Cliff Williams, ContributorAT THE beginning of the 2003, in reference to the racing year, I made a prediction that it would be the period when the industry would have made significant strides in terms of decisions and action to modernise the infrastructure and identify a new owner of the business side through divestment, but as we all know now nothing of the sort has materialised.
Throughout 2003 we had pretty much what has prevailed for the previous five years or so, with if anything, a worsening of negative factors, such as disappointing sales turnover for the promoters, a dwindling of the equine population and higher levels of piracy of the racing product all combining to plunge the industry deeper in crisis.
In fact, the only real positives that emerged during the year was the introduction of the controlled use of raceday medication to alleviate bleeding problems in the thoroughbreds and the granting of a purse increase to the long-suffering owners. As usual, at the start of each racing year, I try to look ahead to see what the likely prospects there are in terms of the development of the industry in the critical areas. Last year was one of those where the things I envisaged never materialised and I am wondering seriously about the wisdom of engaging in such an exercise of futility which leads to more embarrassment with each succeeding year.
RACING CALANDAR
On the negative side, the promoters have distributed a 2004 racing calendar with eight race meetings less than 2003 and this has led to consternation in the ranks of the investors and professionals as well as the bookmaking industry. This development is almost being received as if it is the first real indicator that the industry as we know it is in trouble.
As far as I know, the promoting company had no rational course of action other than to accept the fact that the equine population has decreased and that with mid-week cards producing losses the calendar had to be planned taking this into account.
This problem is not going to solved in the 366 days of 2004 unless huge and immediate investment takes place in the importation of thoroughbreds for racing and breeding and I not aware that there are investors with deep pockets waiting for divestment to take place and then taking the plunge.
Therefore the projections for the performance of the promoting company cannot be as healthy as it has been in the preceding decade as far as the local racing product is concerned and this is going to carry a lot of weight in the deliberations of the potential investors once the terms and conditions of divestment become available for consideration.
Incidentally, one of my failed predictions was that sometime during last year the asking price for privatisation would have been made public. In my view, acquisition of the business side of the industry, if and when it becomes available, is not likely to be something that will make potential investors other than those already involved in the industry engage in a stampede to put up the necessary capital to take over the operations.
Based on intelligent speculation, I cannot imagine that any offer made by the Government is going to be all that attractive, given the fact that the 44-year-old racing plant is in need of very expensive and expansive development. Be that as it may, once the terms and conditions of divestment are promulgated, the likely investors will show their hands and this is expected to materialise in the first quarter of the year.
I am predicting that it will indeed emerge before long but I am also predicting that the reception in the investment market will not be as warm as some may think and a lot of wheeling and dealing is going to have to be done before the funds for acquisition materialise from any group of investors or possibly an institution.
STOCK EXCHANGE
The likelihood, though is that at some point in the not-too-distant future the new owners, whoever they are, will list the company on the stock exchange as a way of raising capital for infrastructural development. Turning now to the racing and the professionals involved, here are some of the things I expect to happen in 2004. With the influx of some fairly talented imported horses, local breds are going to have a difficult time paying their way in the more important races for which these importees are eligible.
Conversely, though there are about a score of importees who seem destined to compete for very low tags and one wonders how the importers could have been so wrong. Based on the results of the 2003 juvenile programme it would appear that in the Hamark Farms' Distinctly Irish the breeders have managed to give us only one of real class and this colt, all things being equal, will take a hand in all the 2004 Futurities for which he is eligible. In the ranks of the professional riders the changing of the guards will basically continue and the latest batch of riding school graduates, four of whom finished in the top 10 in 2003, will make an even bigger impression in 2004.
While among the trainers there isn't likely to be any significant change without anybody likely to emerge to trouble the status quo and the Wayne DaCosta/Philip Feanny great top-of-the-table rivalry will continue.
For the promoting company simulcast races will become even more important as a profit centre. It will grow in popularity to an even greater degree than we have seen during the past decade and 2004 will become the best year since its introduction. For the bookmakers 2004 will also be another good year and the issue of opening hours and right fees will be settled satisfactorily and a new and more enlightened tax regime will come on-stream to enhance profitability, thus increasing the flow of revenue to Government.
Quite frankly, there isn't a great deal of optimism that 2004 will be great year for the local racing industry in terms of the racing product and infrastructural development, but one lives in hope that despite the difficulties there will be something to celebrate at year-end.
