John Rapley - FOREIGN FOCUS IT WASN'T the first time he went down for the count. Nor was it the first that he leapt up and went on to win the fight by unanimous decision.
Time after time, the blows seem to slide off British Prime Minister Tony Blair like fat off a Teflon-pan. This time, he went toe to toe with the BBC and pulled off a knock-out victory that stunned even him.
Last week, the Hutton Inquiry into the death of British scientist David Kelly revealed its findings. Last year, Dr. Kelly committed suicide once it came to light that he had been the secret source for a controversial report by BBC correspondent Andrew Gilligan. Gilligan had reported that a central claim made by Mr. Blair in the run-up to the Iraq invasion that Saddam Hussein could unleash weapons of mass destruction within 45 had been 'sexed up' against the advice of the government's own weapons experts. He laid the blame for this on Mr. Blair's then-communications director, Alastair Campbell.
CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE
The government then went to war with the BBC. Dr. Kelly got caught in the middle. After his death, a contrite Campbell resigned and Mr. Blair launched the inquiry to determine who should be held responsible: The government engaged in some dubious dealings in pushing the reserved Dr. Kelly into the limelight, but the BBC also was shown to have engaged in some careless reporting.
It was thus expected that Mr. Gilligan and some of his supervisors would come in for criticism. Indeed, heads rolled at the BBC after Lord Hutton published his report. What was not expected was the virtually complete exoneration of the government. Mr. Campbell was quick to make the most of it, to the apparent consternation of some in the government.
Nevertheless, Mr. Blair's victory did not turn out to be quite as sweet as one would expect. The spectators had expected to see at least a few scrapes on Mr. Blair. The fact that he emerged unscathed from a bruising contest has caused more than a few people to question the refereeing. Polls taken in the wake of the publication of Lord Hutton's report show that while the BBC has suffered a loss of esteem, this did not redound to the government's advantage. Britons apparently consider the Hutton affair a whitewash and do not trust the Blair government to tell them the truth.
To make matters worse for the Prime Minister, over the weekend the US administration announced it would launch an independent inquiry into the preparation of intelligence prior to the war. President George W. Bush really had little choice. The week before, his chief weapons inspector in Iraq resigned and testified before Congress that not only was he certain that no weapons of mass destruction would be found, but that the intelligence community had failed badly in over-estimating Saddam's threat.
The inquiry could prove embarrassing to Mr. Bush in an election year, though it will not release its findings until 2005. However, Mr. Blair could stand to lose. Mr. Bush's case for war before the American people rested only in part on the argument that Saddam possessed weapons of mass destruction. He also played up the broader threat Saddam posed to world peace and American interests.
LESS PERTURBED
Most Americans bought this line of reasoning, and still do. As a result, they have been less perturbed by the absence of weapons of mass destruction. The slow grind of the war may yet come back to haunt Mr. Bush. But for now, the ground beneath him is not shifting.
Not so for Mr. Blair. His sole case for going to war has always been to rid the world of Saddam's much-vaunted arsenal. Unlike Mr. Bush, who has been muting some of his claims, Mr. Blair has continued to maintain that weapons of mass destruction will turn up in Iraq. He would have preferred to let arms inspectors do their work slowly and ploddingly.
Instead, he has been forced to open a potentially-damaging inquiry. So far, its terms of reference will likely minimise embarrassing fallout. But once it is launched, it may seek to widen its mandate. Thus, no sooner did Mr. Blair start his victory dance than another opponent stepped into the ring.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government UWI, Mona.
