John RapleyTHE COMMANDER of U.S. forces in Afghanistan recently promised he would catch Osama bin Laden this year. While he later backed away from the statement, it nevertheless revealed optimism within American ranks that the hunt for Osama may be nearing a terminal phase. This is because the Pakistani government has thrown its full weight behind the effort.
Osama is believed to be hiding somewhere in the rugged borderlands between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Largely beyond any government's control, this area's sympathies tend strongly towards the Islamists. Pakistan has in the past trod warily here, for fear of stirring resentment. But it is now reportedly getting tough. It has informed local leaders that if they do not turn over suspected al Qaeda and Taliban fighters in their midst, Pakistani troops will punish the local populations.
So far, this approach seems to be working. As a result, the Pakistanis and Americans have launched a pincer operation. Pakistani pressure will flush Taliban and al Qaeda fighters out of Pakistan, forcing them into the line of American guns waiting on the Afghan side of the border.
For Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, it is a big gamble. Sympathies within Pakistan for the Islamists are strong, and by most indications are growing stronger. It is also widely suspected that many in the armed forces and the powerful intelligence establishment have defied their president and retained close ties to the Taliban. Recent brazen assassination attempts on President Musharraf suggest that his enemies are not only determined to eliminate him, but are also able to obtain pretty good intelligence on his movements.
It would seem that Mr. Musharraf has decided he has a choice, either side with the Islamists at home, or side with his American allies and hope that the U.S.' backing will keep him in position. It would appear that he has put all his eggs in the U.S. basket. Not only is he supporting the military campaign, but he is also pressing ahead with peace discussions with India over the divided state of Kashmir. This is sure to stir the ire of Islamists, who reject India's claim to a region they see as belonging to Pakistan, and to the Muslim world.
Mr. Musharraf has also cooperated with American efforts to clamp down on the traffic in nuclear weapons between Pakistan and several other countries. Recently, a government investigation exposed the illegal activities of Pakistan's top nuclear scientist, who had built up a small empire for himself by trafficking in nuclear technology. Most observers say that this could not have been done out without at least the tacit consent of many high people in the Pakistani state, and probably Mr. Musharraf himself.
Nevertheless, the benefit to Mr. Musharraf of American cooperation has already become clear. The White House issued a terse statement saying that it accepted Mr. Musharraf's statement that Pakistan's wrongdoing when it came to building and selling weapons of mass destruction lay in the past. Needless to say, it was not quite the reaction Saddam Hussein got when he issued a similar declaration (with, moreover, stronger evidence than Mr. Musharraf's).
Washington knows it cannot make life any more difficult for Mr. Musharraf than it already is. Mr. Musharraf may not be the type of friend it would wish to have, but he is proving to be an essential ally in the hunt for Osama.
However, even should the Americans capture Osama this year, it is not clear what impact it will have on the wider conflict in which the U.S. is engaged. Recent reports suggest that while al Qaeda may have been rendered largely ineffective by the American campaign, smaller regional groups with only loose affiliation among themselves have emerged in its stead. These organizations are proving difficult to penetrate and track.
Moreover, as the Americans are finding in Iraq, greater freedom and democratization in places governed by ineffectual states may actually enable Islamist organisations to establish themselves on the ground more effectively. The Americans thus face a difficult choice, back efforts at democratization in places like Iraq that may come back to haunt them, or support repressive regimes like Pakistan's which may only further drive people into the Islamist camp. This campaign is proving to be terribly complicated.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
