Zia Mian
AS THE Haitian drama unfolds, international organisations and regional leaders are extremely concerned about the deteriorating political situation that has brought Haiti to a grinding halt. The armed attacks on the central police station and other installations in Gonaives (February 5) have worsened the ongoing crisis that the country has been caught in since the alleged fraudulent legislative elections in 2000. The police are under barricade to protect themselves from armed insurgencies (February 19).
So far all efforts to resolve the crisis have failed and no viable solution to the crisis this time around has as yet emerged. Regional leaders, as well as the United States administration, have suggested holding fresh elections before the expiry of President Aristide's current term in office (February 17). He, however, remains opposed to holding elections before the official date in February 2006. As the plot thickens, political pundits strongly argue that removing President Aristide out of the office by force might only further deepen the crisis. The regional leaders do not wish to experience a repeat of the chaotic situation that evolved following the coup d'etat in September 1991 when President Aristide was ousted from the office, unleashing a wave of 'boat people' on its Caribbean neighbours and North America.
To be prepared for any possible fallout from a political eruption in Haiti, on Friday (February 20), various key government agencies in Jamaica met with the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) to develop strategies to help deal with a potential influx of refugees.
POOR LIVING STANDARDS
Following the 1991 coup d'etat, Haiti experienced a drastic deterioration in economic and social conditions. Three years of military dictatorship left the country with complete economic mismanagement and an international embargo that Haiti could ill afford at that period in its economic history. As a result the living standards declined sharply from already lowest in the western hemisphere, and the vulnerable were the worst that were hurt by the economic plight that followed. Tens of thousands of Haitians fled the country. Finally the U.S. military had to intervene and reinstate Aristide in 1994. No one can claim that it improved political stability or changed anything for the Haitian poor.
This time around, 9/11 has changed the rules that govern our mobility and day-to-day living. No one wants to see a fresh Haitian refugee crisis that would definitely follow the overthrow of Aristide and could easily compromise the economic security of the region.
I visited Haiti in the late 1990s to prepare a highway project that was to be financed by the International Development Agency (IDA). As soon as I landed in Haiti, I thought that I had been instantly transported to either Bangladesh (East Bengal) or Calcutta in West Bengal. However, there was one major difference that reminded that I was not among the poorest of the East. The notable difference between the poorest of the Western Hemisphere and of the Bay of Bengal is that the south east Asian regions are poor but they are still green. Haiti with a land area of 27,750 sq km on the western one third of Hispaniola and a population of about eight million, is one of the most densely populated and poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere. Owing to indiscriminate and illegal felling of trees to meet the household energy needs by the poor, denudation of forests has left nothing but barren hills behind. This denudation not only has compromised the watershed programmes of the country, but has also created an unparalleled man made environmental catastrophe that has been in the making for decades (poor cannot afford to buy high cost cooking fuels and must rely on wood to prepare meals). The resulting soil erosions now cause serious flooding and droughts, further aggravating the poverty levels.
In 1995 an internal World Bank economic brief summarised the economic situation as: "The country is characterised by pervasive poverty, alarming social indicators, debilitated institutions, strong macroeconomic imbalances, a severely dilapidated infrastructure and depleted productive assets... Already during 1980-91, the population had suffered a continuing decline in standards of living, with real GNP per capita falling by about two per cent per year. Between 1992-93, Haiti's real per capita income declined at a multiple of this rate making Haiti by far the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere."
WORSENING ECONOMY
Ten years later, the economic situation in Haiti has actually worsened. In 2002 the per capita income in Haiti was estimated at US$440, which remains amongst the lowest in the developing world. The most recent World Bank Country Brief notes that Haiti's: "... Economic and social indicators compare unfavourably with those of many sub-Sahara African countries and are far lower than the average for Latin America and the Caribbean. Income distribution is highly skewed and poverty is widespread (about 80 per cent of the rural population lives below poverty line) -- Malnutrition affects about half of children under the age of five, and half of Haitian adults are illiterate. And rising poverty in Haiti is directly linked to long periods of economic stagnation (per capita GNP has stagnated during the past four decades and actually fell on average annual rate of 5.2 per cent...)" It is sad to note that Haiti is situated so close to the richest economies in the world (North America), but is caught in a perpetual 'poverty trap'. By contrast the neighbouring Dominican Republic, which shares the eastern two-third of the Hispaniola with Haiti, has a per capita income of US$2,230. During the past 10 years, the Dominican Republic's economy has grown at more than six per cent per annum. The Haitian perpetual 'poverty trap' mainly results from: unending political instability, woefully poor governance and prevalent public and political corruption.
A 1998 World Bank study, Haiti: The Challenges of Poverty Reduction, observed that, "Corruption and misuse of public funds have resulted in a decline in the quality of all public services, including such fundamental areas of traditional government responsibility as the police, the justice system, and the provision of basic infrastructure. While the restoration of democracy in Haiti is a highly welcome development and one which has resulted in some encouraging progress, the basic problems of governance remain and are at the core of the country's poverty problems."
Haiti's recent economic performance has been alarming. In 2002 the real GDP declined by another two per cent and inflation continued to rise (over 16 per cent). While the interest rates were climbing (on average over 30 per cent), the health of the financial sector continued to worsen. Owing to the continued political instability, the multilateral agencies, as well as private foreign investors, have been shy to prepare, approve or implement new investment or poverty alleviation projects.
FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IS VITAL
The lack of foreign private or official investments has further aggravated the already dismal economic situation of the country (high economic or political risk). The issue that we face today is not if a change of government in Haiti would solve any of the above problems or the ongoing saga of political instability, or change the economic plight of the poor. Haiti has been plagued by political violence for most of its history since it became the first black republic to declare independence in 1804. If we pay attention to history, we already know the answer.
What Haiti requires is a fundamental change in its institutional framework and concerted effort to build and strengthen public sector institutions that would help to restore and consolidate political stability. In other words, Haiti needs a change in public attitude and not in political labels.
Unless political stability is achieved through a change in attitudes that foster confidence in the economy (encouraging increased investments and employment), the region would continue to be faced with ongoing as well as new crises in Haiti. It is time we seek a sustainable solution which can only emerge from within and not without.
Zia Mian, a retired senior World Bank official,
is an international consultant on information
technology and energy. He writes on issues of national, regional and international interest.
Send your comments to mian_zia@hotmail.com.
