John Rapley - FOREIGN FOCUSWHEN LAST week's bombs ripped apart trains in Madrid, suspicion immediately fell upon ETA, a radical Basque nationalist group with a record of terrorism. Pretty quickly though, experts on Spain noted that there was something unusual about this incident. ETA had rarely carried out this sort of attack, usually phoned in warnings ahead of time, and had never pulled off a bombing of this scale or sophistication.
But what really set alarm bells ringing in Spanish minds was the relentless determination of their government to tie the incident to its old Basque foes. Not only did the government blame ETA before investigators had even reached the scene of the crime, but cabinet ministers were calling journalists directly to say that ETA was to blame. The Spanish prime minister, Jose Maria Aznar, went so far as to instruct Spanish ambassadors to spread the story in the foreign press.
The reason was obvious. Having taken a hard line against ETA, the Spanish government might benefit at the Sunday polls from the wave of national solidarity which followed the coordinated attacks. But if, as many were beginning to wonder, al Qaeda had been behind the incident, things might go badly for the ruling popular Party. A year ago, Mr. Aznar had thrown his government's support behind George W. Bush's campaign to unseat Saddam Hussein. The move was not popular in Spain. Polls suggested that more than nine-tenths of Spaniards opposed their government's decision, and massive street demonstrations confirmed their opposition. If the bomb blast was Islamist payback for an unpopular war, Mr. Aznar might well suffer.
By the weekend, it was clear the police were investigating a possible Islamist link. Still the government held the line that ETA was the prime suspect. At this stage, according to some reports, Spanish intelligence agencies threatened the government that if it did not inform the public of the new line of inquiry, they would begin leaking it to the press.
GOVERNMENT LIES
Finally, on Saturday night, the announcement that some suspects with links to al Qaeda had been arrested made it impossible for the government to maintain its story. Enraged socialist supporters took to the streets to protest what they called government lies. The next day, they returned to the polls, expelling the conservative Popular Party from office and returning the socialists to power.
It is not clear whether Spaniards were punishing the government for lying to them, or for supporting the US invasion of Iraq. What is clear is that the new government will almost certainly withdraw Spain's support for the US, leaving the Ameri-cans increasingly isolated diplomatically at a difficult time. The coalition of the willing has turned out to be less willing than advertised.
The incident is significant, and deeply worrying, in other ways. If we leave to one side for the moment the recent attacks in Turkey, the Madrid bombing represents the first time al Qaeda has launched an attack on European soil. Many more are expected to follow. Moreover, the shift in tactics away from suicide-bombings, coupled with the brutal effectiveness of this incident, suggest that al Qaeda's arsenal is well-stocked.
Worse, al Qaeda has become merely a metonym for a global campaign that is proving even more dangerous than originally anticipated. The fact is that al Qaeda, such as it exists, probably had little if anything to do with this incident. The organization has been smashed and splintered by the American-led offensive in Afghanistan.
HARDER TO TRACK
In its stead has emerged a number of essentially independent cells which, while united by past ties and a shared ideological agenda, are operating largely in isolation from one another. That makes them harder to track. The current wisdom is that the Spanish attack was engineered by a Moroccan group based in Spain. Committed to al Qaeda's broad strategy, it nonetheless has its own tactics. And there are many more such groups - many with North African ties -- active in Europe.
In short, whether or not the Americans succeed in capturing Osama bin Laden in their current campaign on the Afghan-Pakistani border, the war has moved onto a new plane. Bin Laden got things started, but he set in motion a train of events which will now continue operating on its own.
John Rapley is a Senior Instructor in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
