IN A People's National Party administration often buffeted by stinging public criticism and politically damaging corruption charges, Jamaicans have carried on a long-standing love affair with Minister Portia Simpson Miller, no matter the Cabinet portfolio she is assigned.
Nothing much has changed in 2004, especially in the critical 18 to 24 age group where Mrs. Simpson Miller's popularity dominates.
According to the findings of a Gleaner-commissioned Don Ander-son poll, Mrs. Simpson Miller, Minister of Local Government, Community Development and Sport, has once again emerged in the people's eyes as the front runner for the Prime Minister's post when P.J. Patterson demits office.
Also, the poll revealed that Bruce Golding, chairman of the Jamaica Labour Party, is being tipped as the man most likely to succeed Edward Seaga as head of the opposition Jamaica Labour Party.
These were the key findings of the survey conducted on behalf of the newspaper by Mr. Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Ltd. The survey was conducted from February 28 to March 20 and involved interviews among a nationally representative sample of 1,000 persons islandwide.
The sample error was plus or minus 3.1 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level.
Over 44 per cent of all persons interviewed felt that Simpson Miller is the person most likely to succeed P.J. Patterson when he retires, sometime before the end of the Government's current term in office constitutionally due in 2007.
Dr. Peter Phillips, Minister of National Security, follows in Mrs. Simpson Miller's wake, registering a 30 per cent approval rating from the sample polled; Dr. Omar Davies, Minister of Finance and Planning, finished a distant third with 3.9 per cent. It is interesting to note that the high approval rating given to Simpson Miller was from persons across all the demographic groupings with the clear exception of persons in the upper income category. That category overwhelmingly sees Dr. Phillips in the leadership role.
Whereas 49 per cent of all persons in the low socio-economic stratum see Simpson Miller as the logical choice to succeed Patterson, 48 per cent of the upper income group would go for Phillips, a clear indication that support would be on economic lines.
Strongest support for Simpson Miller comes from the 18 to 24-year-olds, 51 per cent of whom see her as the next party leader of the PNP. Phillips is the only other person who is a serious contender, especially in the parish of Westmoreland, where over 32 per cent of those polled feel he would be the best person to succeed the present Prime Minister.
Bruce Golding registered a robust 52 per cent of the sample polled as the man seen as the most logical successor to Edward Seaga. Since his return to the JLP just before the October 2002 general election, Golding has been swept up in a tide of positive press and public approval.
Audley Shaw, the JLP's spokesman on finance, who was involved recently in a well-publicised court case including a company he had an interest in, finished runner-up with 14.9 per cent.
Other notables included Pearnel Charles with 7.9 per cent support; Mike Henry, with 2.7 per cent, and David Panton with two per cent. Over 12 per cent of those polled could think of no one who would logically fill Seaga's position as party leader.
Last year, Mr. Patterson intimated that he intended to stand down as party leader before the next general election, fuelling speculation about who might succeed him as prime minister.
Simpson Miller reclaimed the position she held among the four vice presidents of the People's National Party when she emerged with the most votes at the party's 65th annual conference at National Arena in Kingston in September. She turned the tables on Phillips, who got more votes in 1999, gaining 1,466 to his 1,367, last time out.
Simpson Miller has enjoyed widespread popularity for several years. In a Don Anderson poll commissioned by The Gleaner in 1996, the then Labour, Welfare and Sport Minister was rated ahead of the Prime Minister in terms of performance by cabinet ministers. She gained the approval of 17.9 per cent compared to 10.1 per cent for Patterson. Six years later, a Gleaner/Don Anderson Poll showed that Simpson Miller had been rated by a sampling of Jamaicans as the best performing minister, while Dr. Omar Davies, Finance and Planning Minister, was seen as the worst in the Cabinet.
