D.K. Duncan"...I know what I am doing and I know when I intend to do it, and I will do it in due course in the interest of my party..."
RESPONDING TO questions on Hot 102's Breakfast Club, the Leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) revealed the essence of his leadership style. Speaking in the context of leadership transition in the JLP, Party Leader Edward Seaga asserted "...well, in politics you never close doors. But I think I know where I am going. As I said, it won't be too long before I make that known to everyone."
'I' MAN
The preponderance of 'I's used by Edward Seaga in his responses speak volumes of the patriarchal nature which has characterised the leadership of the JLP throughout most of its 61 years of existence.
Alexander Bustamante, the party's first leader, compensated for his autocratic style through the sustained love and admiration of a significant cross section of Jamaicans. 'His' party was able to translate this into four parliamentary election victories during his 24 years as leader, while losing two.
The present leader, Edward Seaga, has never been able to support his autocracy with anything near the national admiration bestowed on a Bustamante. As a consequence he has only been able to win one contested parliamentary election while losing five in his close to 30 years as leader.
A SIXTH ELECTORAL DEFEAT
For a number of other reasons, it is highly unlikely that the JLP under Seaga's leadership will reverse this losing trend. The expectation of an implosion in the economy, sufficient to stimulate social unrest and arouse the ire of the electorate, is unlikely to be met. Many think that the JLP leader has pinned his hopes on this occurring to facilitate his early return to Jamaica House.
In the absence of the JLP presenting itself as a credible and inspiring parliamentary alternative, the leadership of the Private Sector and the trade unions are concentrating their efforts on rebuilding the economy.
The Government, for its part, seems confident that the new investments anticipated will jump-start the economy to the benefit of the country and the electoral fortunes of the People's National Party (PNP).
All of this leads to the logical conclusion that the possibility of a fifth consecutive parliamentary electoral victory for the PNP is very real.
SECRET TRANSITION
The JLP leader's stated fear that the PNP would take advantage of any public JLP leadership transition timetable is greatly exaggerated - if not simply a red herring. If Edward Seaga does not intend to lead his party into the next General Election, the sooner he says so and acts must be in the party's electoral interest. The longer he waits is the certainty of him remaining as leader.
Whether there is bad blood or not as a result of a transition, any new leader will require as much time as possible to reconcile factions, reorganise the party, re-energise its supporters and inspire the electorate to the possibility of a credible alternative.
For the JLP, the problem is not one of too fast a transition it is the spectre of no transition. The uncertainty is causing the party to lose the momentum it gained from the June Local Government elections to the November 2002 conference. The inaction is allowing time and space for recriminations, mistrust, the sapping of scarce political energy and the erosion of credibility by the electorate. These are some of the same things the party leader claims that he now has to 'straighten out'. They are the effects, not the cause of the problem.
The latest tactics, which include the Pearnel Charles and Mike Henry assignments, are transparently designed to revive the divide and rule strategies of the last 30 years. This is not clever leadership. It is a sign of political bankruptcy.
The essence of the responses by the JLP leader in the Breakfast Club interview is not transition. It is about a leader digging in for a sixth electoral defeat. One love, one heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former general secretary and cabinet minister in the PNP administration of the 1970s.
