GIVEN THE sharp deterioration that has taken place in Iraq, comparisons are inevitably being made to the failed American campaign in Vietnam. Yet in many respects, this is not so much a new Vietnam as it is America's Lebanon or, worse yet, her Afghanistan.Students of Iraq always warned that the country's factionalised politics might burst into the open if a power-vacuum emerged. That is why many of the Bush administration's critics have reproved it for making what they see as an inadequate troop commitment to the country. Equally, the American administration in Iraq has been roundly criticised for disbanding the Iraqi army. The result, a power vacuum in a heavily-armed country, may have sown the seeds of the explosion we are now witnessing.
A bunch of private militias at war with one another, among whom the Americans struggled to keep peace, would be the Lebanon scenario. That would be headache enough for the White House. But a situation in which those militias began to unite against a perceived common foe would be the Afghanistan scenario. There are at least a few signs this may now be developing. Should it take hold, it is likely to end badly for the Americans.
U.S. commanders are thus eager to nip the insurgency in the bud. However, they run the risk of turning more Iraqis against them if they respond too harshly. Unfortunately for them, their forces may be inadequate for a more methodical approach.
Over the past month the violence has escalated and the death toll has been rising, the Americans counting more than 700 dead, some 100 in April alone. The impact at home is reflected in a report from the Associated Press that the Pentagon had clamped down on the release of photos of flag-draped caskets bearing casualties of the war.
A Democratic congressman, who had served in Vietnam, made the point that photos of caskets coming home from that conflict had a tremendous impact on the way Americans came to view the war. But President Bush is sticking to his guns and has criticised the Spanish announcement that they would be withdrawing their troops from Iraq.
