Christopher Tufton, Contributor
WE HAVE just completed the budget debate, and as expected, the discussion as to whether we are heading in the right direction is on-going.
What is clear is that the Government is upbeat on a number of projects that are expected to get off the ground this year, particularly the expansions in the bauxite and tourism sectors.
GOING FOR GROWTH
With interest rates trending down and growth projections over the next year, the Government is not the only stakeholder in the society bullish on the future.
The stock market is recording profits, an indication that companies are making money and both institutional and individual investors are confident about what is happening.
These are not developments that one can ignore or not support, even if we accept, that the Government has been at it for over 15 years without much success, until very recently.
RECOVERY - NOT EXPANSION
Better late than never, some would say, however, we should be careful not to lose sight of the extent to which, as a country, we have lost time, energy, and resources over the last decade.
Many Jamaicans have found it difficult to maintain basic economic activities over these many years, and we should be careful to recognise that many of us are in a recovery, rather than an expansion mode.
From all indications, the Government does not seem to understand this reality.
In the excitement to promote and take credit for the recent positive economic prospects, it appears as if the Government is forgetting that we are attempting to pull ourselves from what I would describe as a 'very low low'.
My concern is that we must be careful as a society, as a business community, and as a Government, to remember that due to the chronic state of our economy over the years, there has been, and there still are, a number of vulnerable Jamaicans that must be identified and protected.
With the announcements, we run the risk of counting our chickens before they are hatched, and in that context we risk further exposure to the most vulnerable in the society.
At the end of the day, it's the reality on the ground that matters most. Not what is said, but what is experienced.
In the case of our daily challenges, it's about jobs, housing, health care, schooling and personal security.
What it is not about are announcements of targets and intentions to achieve.
So the Government might be expecting economic expansion, but what is the reality on the ground? And what of those who are most vulnerable and disadvantaged?
POVERTY DEFINED
The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) and the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), in their most recent publication on living conditions in the country, defines the poverty line as J$47,000 per person as of the year 2002 or J$3900 per month. Please see Table 1.
Based on this definition, according to the PIOJ/STATIN publication, poverty in Jamaica is on the increase, from 16 per cent in 1998 to 20 per cent in 2002.
The Kingston Metropolitan Area (KMA) recorded 10.4 per cent, up from 8.6 per cent five years before. In the rural areas the situation is more pronounced with over 25 per cent of residents living in poverty. In these cases the lack of opportunities are obviously more pronounced.
If this study is a true indication of poverty in our country, then as many as a fifth of our population, or over five hundred thousand Jamaicans could possibly be living on less than what is required to feed, clothe and shelter them, not to mention education and health care costs. The worrying aspect of all this is that it's a growing trend.
The challenge, therefore, is how as a country we ensure that we rid ourselves of poverty rather than increase it as is now the trend.
The ultimate solution is to achieve sustainable growth. Until then we must contend with this reality of poverty.
In this context, the Government, in its attempts to reduce expenditure, must be mindful of the dislocation likely to take place among the poor.
SOCIAL WELFARE PROGRAMMES
The Government will argue that there are social welfare programmes in place to address the needs of the most vulnerable in the society. These programmes are designed to alleviate poverty by providing assistance such as income support, provisions of medication, food and fuel benefits, and school fee assistance.
Over the years, the main programmes and respective ministries have been:
Free lunch/snacks Ministry of Education, Youth and Culture,
Food Stamp Programme (FSP) Ministry of Labour and Social Security,
Secondary School Fee Assistance Programme (SSFAP) Ministry of Education, Youth and Culture,
Public assistance Programme Ministry of Labour and Social Security,
Poor Relief Programme Ministry of Labour and Social Security,
Social and Economic Support Programme (SESP) Office of the Prime Minister, Jamaica Drugs for the Elderly Programme (JADEP) Ministry of Health,
Programme for Advancement through Health and Education (PATH) Ministry of Labour and Social Security.
The PATH programme is the most recent (two years) intended to reform and consolidate the number of social programmes to ensure greater efficiency.
However, for a number of reasons, these programmes do not have the impact as most persons who fall into the category of being poverty stricken do not benefit.
There are a number of glaring deficiencies that the Government must accept exist and move speedily to correct.
LOW PARTICIPATION
To begin with, the Survey of Living Conditions 2002 indicates that less than one per cent of respondents have ever applied for any of these programmes, primarily because of a lack of felt need, a feeling of ineligibility, or outright lack of knowledge that these programmes exist.
Here it should be noted that this is not because people have health insurance.
According to the survey in 2002, only 13.5 per cent of respondents had access to health care insurance, 25 per cent in the KMA area, 12.6 per cent in other towns and 7.6 per cent in rural towns.
One possible conclusion from this is that many persons, certainly those within the 20 per cent poverty range, would definitely have a need to access these programmes.
The Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions 2002 showed that just over a third of the beneficiaries of welfare programmes fall within the poverty stream, indicating that these programmes are benefiting only a minority of the poor and vulnerable in the society. Please see Table 2.
This clearly demonstrates a failure of the system.
COSTS RESTRICTIONS
The reasons given by respondents for not accessing these programmes are equal, considering that 80 per cent of the respondents of the survey say they were not aware of the benefit that was being offered.
Almost 20 per cent say they have not sought health care because of costs, with 23.2 per cent in rural areas, 9.4 per cent in KMA and 18.6 per cent in other towns. This again indicates that these programmes have major deficiencies.
The PATH programme is intended to be a modern version of a number of the other welfare programmes. With allocation of $400 per month, this is hardly adequate for the over 150,000 Jamaicans registered. The Government argues that PATH is not a replacement income but a supplement to existing income. But one must admit this offers little comfort to a person earning less than $3900 per month.
Additionally, the pending increases in user fees, announced by the Minister of Finance, will only make the situation worse for the poor and vulnerable. The increase in user fees is tantamount to being a tax package for the poor, as it is the poor who are likely to be hit hardest.
Take, for example, the expected hike in public health care costs.
It is the poor and destitute who are likely to suffer, as they are the ones going to these clinics and hospitals. Additionally, it is disingenuous for the Minister to suggest that many fees were unrealistic and below costs. Isn't that the whole idea? That is why we pay taxes.
In the end, we have to accept, as a country, that prospects for economic growth are just that prospects.
In the meantime, we should accept that, as a country, we have not grown for a while and there are many Jamaicans still struggling to make ends meet.
Dr. Chris Tufton is president of Generation 2000 (G2K), an associate body of the Jamaica Labour Party. Send your comments to CCTufton@yahoo.com
