By Dennise Williams, Staff reporter"JAMAICA'S ECONOMY is on a growth path. We are past the recovery stage and our economy is firmly set to grow," says Dr. Wesley Hughes, director general of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).
Dr. Hughes was speaking at a quarterly press briefing, to give an overview of the performance of the Jamaican economy held at the PIOJ headquarters on May 17th. Looking back on the last fiscal year 2003/04, the PIOJ revealed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of national production, was estimated to have grown by 2 per cent and Goods production increased by 2 per cent. The main sources of growth were Mining & Quarrying, Agriculture, Electri-city & Water, Finance & Insurance Services and Miscellaneous services.
For the first quarter of the year, January to March 2004, GDP grew by an estimated 2.4 per cent relative to January to March 2003. Additionally, the Government experienced a fiscal surplus of $7.5 billion, which Dr. Hughes attributed to the sell-off of Government assets and increased tax collection.
Overall, Dr. Hughes appeared upbeat and the numbers showed that every sector of the economy recorded growth in the first quarter of 2004 except Agriculture. Stated Dr. Hughes, "The Goods Producing sectors grew by 3 per cent and the Services sectors grew by 2 per cent." Explaining the 2.1 per cent decline in Agriculture, Dr. Hughes remarked, "We understand that rainfall in the quarter was 32 per cent less than the 30 year average. Although that didn't make the news, it represented a severe drought, which caused domestic production to fall. The result was that farm gate prices rose. Since there is a heavy weighting of food in the Consumer Price Index, this negatively affected inflation."
STARS OF THE ECONOMY
According to Dr. Hughes, the Jamaican economy "has found a happy situation where Goods Production and Services are growing and so the overall economy is growing as well." And the stars of the economy, based on contribution to GDP growth are Mining and Tourism. Stated Dr. Hughes, "Real GDP in Mining and Quarrying increased by 11 per cent. Total bauxite production grew by 8.2 per cent reflecting plant capacity utilisation reaching 100.9 per cent." In terms of tourism, the numbers tell a tale of growth.
Real GDP of Hotels, Restaurants and Clubs up 7 per cent
Total arrivals up 3.4 per cent
Stopover arrivals up 7 per cent
Cruise visitor arrivals up 1.4 per cent
Visitor expenditure up 6.8 per cent
Looking ahead, Dr. Hughes sees continued growth in the economy. The prospects for the economy are as follows:
GDP is expected to grow by 2-3 per cent during April to June 2004.
Goods Producing and Services sectors are expected to grow by just under 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively.
Alumina production up by 10.8 per cent
Crude Bauxite production up 21.5 per cent
Inflationary pressures are expected from higher fuel prices
In terms of inflation, when asked if, in light of rising petroleum costs, the Government would achieve its target of single digit inflation for the fiscal year, Dr. Hughes stated, "We are still hopeful."
