John Rapley - FOREIGN FOCUSA YEAR that started badly for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has, in recent weeks, turned surprisingly good. Where his campaign was struggling to gain traction just a couple of months ago, it now seems to have taken off.
It is less that Mr. Kerry has found his footing than that President Bush has stumbled repeatedly, and now looks more vulnerable than just about any president in memory at this point of the campaign. The stock market has been slumping, the economy has been slowing, and the front pages of the newspapers have been taken over by the horrific images of American abuse in Iraqi prisons.
Thus, what was to have been the President's strong card in this campaign his strong stand on security has actually turned against him. Support for the war in Iraq is plumbing new lows, and what once seemed to some Americans like steadfast leadership by Mr. Bush now looks like a blinkered refusal to bend with the winds.
Mr. Bush's poll approval ratings have followed the figures on support for the war, which is to say they are headed downward fast. This disillusionment makes Mr. Bush a soft target. Indeed, in the history of polling, no American president has had an approval rating this low so close to the election, and gone on to win.
To compound matters for the president, Democrats are more united than they have been in a long time. The divisions between left and right that Bill Clinton bequeathed the party have given way to a shared determination to remove George W. Bush from office at all cost. As a result, Mr. Bush's huge advantage in fund-raising has ceded to a surge in donations from Democratic backers, who can taste victory in November.
In contrast, fissures are starting to appear in the Republican camp. The right wing is grumbling that Mr. Bush has taken them for granted, while many prominent Republicans have been hinting strongly that somebody, preferably Donald Rumsfeld, should be fired over the Iraqi prison scandal. Mr. Bush is reluctant to dismiss anyone now for fear that it could look like a rush for the lifeboats.
KERRY IN POLE POSITION
All in all, this election is now looking like it is John Kerry's to lose. Yet while it may look like smooth sailing ahead, dangers remain. For starters, the volatility in Iraq, and uncertainty at home, are mirrored in the polls. Few analysts are therefore willing to make predictions for November based on the president's current standing. A major terrorist attack over the summer, a plunge in the stock market, an unexpectedly promising transition in Iraq at the end of June - all of which remain in the realm of possibility - could alter the election campaign in unforeseeable but dramatic ways.
Then there are foreseeable challenges. It is quite likely that employment growth between now and November will be strong. So, too, may inflationary pressures, especially with gas prices rising to record levels. The first could help Mr. Bush, but the second could hurt him. But it is not obvious that Senator Kerry can assume that today's economic pessimism will be prevailing come November.
Equally, dismay at the war in Iraq may not translate in an even ratio to support for Mr. Kerry. His own position on Iraq is actually not far from that of the president. If anti-war sentiment grows, which is quite likely, disaffected Democrats may once again drift over to Ralph Nader's camp. Indeed, it is worrying for Mr. Kerry that despite Mr. Bush's dwindling popularity, the election race remains neck and neck. In part, this appears to result from weakness on his left flank.
Therefore, Mr. Kerry would probably do well to resist the pressure from the Clintonites for him to move to the centre. Above all, he needs to hold his base. If he moves too soon to capture the middle ground, he may find that his own army falls out from under him.
George W. Bush may be on the canvas, but late last year I wrote a column in which I described him as on the ropes. He bounced out of that corner, and would surge (if only temporarily) late in the year. He might just do it again.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
