By Gwynne Dyer, ContributorLATE LAST month Pakistan's Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali watched a test-launch of the country's Ghauri missile, whose 930-mile (1,500-km.) range allows it to deliver nuclear warheads anywhere in India except Assam and the far south. There was the usual communiqué saying that "The prime minister made it clear that Pakistan's edge over its adversaries will be maintained at all costs." And then just a brief reference to the fact that some time this month will see the first test-flight of Pakistan's longest-range missile, the Ghauri III missile, which can strike at targets 2,175 miles (3,500 km.) away.
Now, what target do you suppose that new missile is meant for? It can't be just India, because no part of India is much more than half that distance away from Pakistan. Time to get the atlas out. Okay, the Ghauri III can reach Thailand and Vietnam, but Pakistan has no quarrel with them. It can just about reach Beijing, but China is sort of an ally (at least in the sense that it also sees India as a strategic rival). So what could it be?...Oh, look, it can reach Israel.
I interviewed an ex-army official in Tel Aviv. He told me about Israel's nuclear weapons, which Israel never officially confirms that it has, and since he didn't want to end up in jail for eighteen years like Mordechai Vanunu later did, he told his story very carefully, without ever saying the magic words 'nuclear weapons.' But his meaning was absolutely clear.
STRATEGIC SUPERIORITY
My source told me that in the late fifties the Israeli government had been deciding to build a new weapon (which must remain anonymous) that would give it total strategic superiority in the region. He argued that Israel was already militarily secure, and could not be beaten for the foreseeable future by any combination of Arab armies. His concern was reasonable, but he was wrong: no Arab country except Iraq ever seriously tried to get a nuclear weapon, and even Saddam Hussein gave up when United Nations arms inspectors dismantled his whole programme after his defeat in the Gulf war of 1991. Israel has been very lucky -- until now.
Pakistan's nuclear weapons were not built with Israel in mind, of course. They were a response to India's determined drive for nuclear weapons, partly because it felt vulnerable to China, partly just as a badge of great-power status. So India got nukes, and therefore Pakistan got them. Eventually, in 1998, India tested its weapons publicly, so Pakistan did, too. But long before that both sides were already building missiles to deliver the nuclear weapons. India wanted a long-range one (because it thinks in terms of a nuclear conflict with China), so Pakistan's armed forces asked for a long-range missile, too.
Did the generals who asked for it know that it would put Israel within range of Pakistan's nuclear weapons? I don't know, but most generals can read maps. Nobody's luck lasts forever: Israel will soon be vulnerable to a nuclear strike at last. The present Pakistani government would never consider such a thing, but if Islamist extremists should ever seize power there -- well, Pakistan is very vulnerable to an Israeli pre-emptive nuclear strike, and Israel never lets the other side get in the first blow if it can help it.
Gwynne Dyer is a London-based
independent journalist whose articles
are published in 45 countries.
