Martin HenryNOVEMBER 1974 to June 2004: a date short of 30 years between Edward Seaga having the 'bitter cup' of JLP leadership pressed to his lips, as he himself declared under Bustamante's statue at South Parade, and delivering up the cup by resignation/retirement under duress.
Mr. Seaga has failed to go as graciously as two previous leaders of the rival PNP have done and the incumbent president says he plans to do. The JLP has been beset by succession problems. Bustamante hanged on into deep old-age beyond reasonable competence. There has always been a view that Shearer was forced out of leadership. And now Seaga has been ousted having lost his iron-grip control of 30 years.
I have a deep fascination with the road not taken, the question: what if? What if different choices had been made at crucial junctures? And there have been numerous such junctures in our political history in independence.
So what if the Federal experiment had not cost Norman Manley and the PNP the leadership of the country into independence in that crucial election of April 1962? The Fabian socialist ideals of the PNP in government in independence would certainly have delivered different results.
The parliamentary debate over the Seaga-crafted Independence Five-Year Development Plan, 1963-1968, gives some sharp insights into di-vergences of views on development goals and strategies. The greater emphasis of the JLP on economic development and the greater emphasis of the PNP on social welfare up to the 1990s remained a significant point of difference.
DIED PREMATURELY
What if Donald Sangster had not died prematurely as Prime Minister of Jamaica propelling the youthful Bustamante protege, Hugh Shearer, into the seat of Head of Government with his strong trade union background? What if Robert Lightbourne, or somebody else had succeeded Sangster instead of Shearer?
Seaga came to elected political office as MP for Western Kingston with Back o' Wall, the back of nowhere, the pits of Jamaican urban society a main part of the area. He has remained MP for the same constituency for 42 years with dangerously-high voter support, the longest run in the Parliament. But what if Mr. Seaga had entered electoral politics somewhere else, say in rural Jamaica in the kind of setting where he did his sociological and cultural researches? What if "Burning Spear" Dudley Thompson had not been his opponent in Western Kingston and 'blood for blood, fire for fire' had not emerged as a tactical response to aggressive political competition in hard urban patches?
Seaga had a promising start as a cultural anthropologist, and became an expert on Jamaican popular music. Even today, as a septuagenarian, his sharpness of mind and capacity for research is unrivalled in the political domain. He could easily have become an outstanding scholar here or anywhere else. Suppose he had? Suppose he had resigned after the crushing defeat of '89 by a formerly vanquished Manley and PNP, as Shearer had done two years after the debacle of '72? Or resigned after the defeats of '93, '97 or 2002?
The political confrontation of Manley and Seaga for 18 years marks the most destructive period of Jamaica's independent history which is a big chunk [43 per cent] of 42 years. The consequences of PNP/JLP tribal conflict which peaked under both leaders will remain with us hampering development for many more than 18 years. Positive contributions, and there are many on both sides, can never reasonably be assessed without due consideration of how that rivalry has imposed huge costs on the country's development.
To Patterson's credit he has done a great deal to defuse party political tensions, though not nearly enough. But what if Patterson had never returned but had been permanently separated from the batterings of politics to continue his lucrative career in law? What if the popular Portia Simpson had carried the ballot in the PNP presidential succession race of '92 as she normally does in South-Western St. Andrew which abuts Seaga's Western Kingston?
EMERGE
What consequences to the future political history of Jamaica will emerge from the impending choice of Patterson's successor, and who will that person have to work with and against as JLP leader, and for how long?
Humans make history although often players are caught up and pushed along by large waves of events beyond anyone's control. At the critical intersection of human will and character on the one hand and the rush of events on the other turning point in history emerge. What if the roads not taken had been taken? Which road will the JLP take post-Seaga? Which road will Seaga take post-JLP leadership? Resignation/retirement doesn't have to be the end of his large, positive contributions to Jamaica. Freed from each other, we could see productive new beginnings. Why did it take so long?
Martin Henry is a communication specialist.
