Ian Boyne, Contributor
FOR ALL his much-complained-about indecisiveness and lack of guts, Bruce Golding's decision in 2002 to return to the Jamaica labour Party (JLP) is one so pivotal as to compensate for his tentativeness in the past.
Rather than languishing in the political wilderness all his life with brilliant but unenforceable ideas through the failed third party option, Golding made the realistic and sensible decision to rejoin one of the two political parties through which he would have a viable means of implementing his ideas. He knew that by doing so he risked scorn, scepticism, anger, charges of betrayal and sell-out and, significantly, too, undermining by the politically ambitious in the JLP. But he had the guts to make the decision anyway.
The Press was not kind to him on his return to the JLP. Even the man who had lobbied tirelessly for his return, Columnist Mark Wignall, did not hail the move taken so close to the elections. I was the only journalist who gave him unqualified support for the decision. Today, Golding must be thanking either God or Lady Luck for giving him the courage to make the move back to the JLP. The Prime Ministership of the country is now within striking distance of him, while as National Democratic Movement (NDM) leader and ex-leader he was in the same position - political oblivion and never-never land.
Yet, the decision to form the NDM, on reflection, turns out to be another Golding decision that has been crucial. If Golding made only these two important decisions in his political life, they would turn out to pale into insignificance his alleged phobia for making decisions. Golding's establishment of the NDM gave him a platform to freely develop and expose his ideas of constitutional and political reform and to inveigh against a political culture that large numbers of Jamaicans had been disgusted with and turned off from.
HIS OWN POLITICAL SPACE
He could never, under the shadow of any political leader, let alone Edward Seaga, have carved out his own political space with such force and dynamism, as he was able to, as leader of his own political party. The impression he has made on the Jamaican people, the ways he has captured the imagination of many with his campaign against 'dutty politics' and the concentration of power in the hands of the Executive, and his forceful representation of himself as an agent of change and political reform - a Saul on the Road to Damascus - could never have come had he not had the guts to step out of the house of Daddy Seaga.
I suggest that any fallout from the sense that he betrayed and disgraced the family by departing to form rival relationships (i.e. NDM) - and there will be some fall-out from that - will be more than written off by the political and emotional capital that he gained through the opportunity to sell his ideas and vision to the Jamaican people.
There are many people in the uncommitted category and many who have traditionally voted PNP and even many JLP people who have come to know Bruce Golding, not because of his work in the JLP, but because of his work in the NDM. The NDM is a colossal failure in electoral politics, but it has been an extremely useful tool in building Bruce Golding as a potential Prime Minister of Jamaica.
So that, ironically, a man not distinguished by his decisiveness and decision-making adeptness turns out to have made two decisions that in the lottery of decisions turns out to be big winners. The role of luck and circumstances what the Bible calls 'time and chance' can never be underestimated in life's successes.
TREMENDOUS TRACTION
Circumstances also crucially affect the two other main contenders for the JLP leadership prize. Take Audley Shaw. Before the last General Election he was on a roll and could do no wrong. He had gained tremendous traction with many persons because of his penchant to ferret assorted scandals, whether real or imagined, (perception is reality in politics).
Audley Shaw, connected very deeply with the Jamaican people, particularly the urban masses, because he was crusading against things, Jeremiah-style, which deeply upset ordinary Jamaicans. What was dubbed the 'Fat Cats' Scandal deeply resonated with many Jamaicans and certainly with the media. There was a time when every pronouncement of Audley Shaw's was headline news.
He was lionised in the media for what was seen as his painstaking, diligent investigative skills, his anathema to corruption and abuse of public funds. His economic critiques of the PNP government were seen by many in media and civil society as being on-the-mark and poignant. Labourites felt proud of him as he embarrassed the Government and passionately stirred up the people's ire against the PNP. If Bruce Golding had only stuck to his regular game of taking forever to make a decision, Audley Shaw would be the one within closer reach of the mantle of Prime Ministership now.
If only Bruce had gone back to private life or established an interest group like the Farquarson Institute, or just content himself with being a talk-show host and an ideas merchant, then Audley, consummately, single-mindedly ambitious, would be a happy man today. If ever there were an unlucky man, it is Audley Shaw.
NEVER RULED OUT
Shaw is one of the most politically astute persons in the political arena today. Shaw is a master political communicator and has a knack for articulating the concerns, hurts, anxieties, frustrations and hopes of the urban masses and the middle classes. I give no one in the political arena today, in either PNP or JLP, the mastery of polemics and histrionics over Audley Shaw. His public relations skills and sophistication is second to none in the Jamaican political landscape. This is why he can never be ruled out or dismissed lightly.
Besides, he is not just style without substance. Audley Shaw is no fool; no politician with gimmicks but no head. He works hard, will do his homework and has some grasp of economic issues.
Another man who is a victim of time and circumstances is Pearnel Charles, the 'Chief'. Emotionally, one is compelled to feel that if ever a man deserved to succeed Edward Seaga, it is Pearnel Charles. A 'Rockstone Labourite', party loyalist par excellence, a man of extraordinary fortitude and grit; a man who possesses an indomitable will and a quintessential Jamaican of resilience, boundless optimism, faith and unquenchable belief in his Jamaican grassroots people. This is a man who went to court to prevent a divorce from his party. A man who went to jail for his party. A man who was literally beaten for his party, by his party. A man who has been abused by his party leadership, publicly excoriated by his party leader.
This is a man whose own party leader brought a resolution before Labourites that read, "Be it resolved that this all-island General Council of the JLP censures and condemns Mr. Pearnel Charles as an irresponsible, disloyal, cowardly and morally unsuitable representative". Yet a Gleaner story on Thursday was headlined, 'Seaga is in my corner' and Charles is the choice of many of the Seaga loyalists today. Between 1982 and 1986 when the JLP was under much fire the polls showed that Pearnel Charles was voted the most outstanding Government minister. The polls have always indicated that in the 1980s he was at times more popular nationally than Party Leader Edward Seaga.
How could a man with so much political capital be seen as not a serious contender to Bruce Golding today? How has the rock turned into a pebble? That Charles is now seen as acceptable to Seaga is a kiss of death to many. There is a revolt against the old guard and an endorsement by Seaga today is precisely what you do not need to succeed him, if one is gauging the temperature in the party. As one Labourite told me at the Shearer funeral, apparently echoing others, "If we don't want Seaga at 74 why would we want Charles at 68?" The age issue is being used against Charles massively in this campaign (This is one prejudice that even educated Jamaicans are proud to display).
LANGUAGE OF THE PEASANT CLASS
There is no doubt that neither Golding nor Shaw can speak the language and realities of the peasant class like Pearnel Charles. Delegates outside of the urban areas can't relate to Golding's issues the way they can to Charles'. So why do I say Golding will win the delegates vote?
Golding has behind him the finest, most efficient organisational machinery in the JLP. The Robertson-Chang-Creary-Vaz et al team is formidable, and, in my view, unbeatable. The energy, passion and organisational skills of these fellows remind me of the Duncan days of mobilisation in the PNP. These fellows will sell Golding in the hills and the valleys of Jamaica. Neither Charles nor Shaw has any machinery of the quantity or quality of Golding's.
In addition, Golding has the backing of Big Money and the Jamaican ruling class. This was crucial in assisting Eddie Seaga to make his decision to leave the JLP leadership, to put it delicately. Golding has three critically important success factors in his favour: The backing of the capitalist class and the professional elite, a well-oiled organisational machinery, and strong support in the media and among key civil society leadership. Besides, Golding has a strong reputation as a man who is bright, technically competent and, most importantly, a political reformer. People see Golding as the man to bring a change to our 'dutty politics'; a man genuinely fed up with it and who wants an opportunity to make a difference.
Put in that mix, the crucial fact that the JLP has been in the political dungeon for 15 years and they are hungry. They want power desperately. They are crude pragmatists. Even if the MPs like Charles and Shaw, they like power more, and they reason that Golding is the man whom the public would support, as shown by his 52 per cent support in the March polls, compared to Shaw's 14.9 per cent and Charles' 7.9 per cent .These people have made their calculation. They and the delegates would vote for someone they think is a Judas if they feel he can bring them political power. What unites them is the passion to get rid of the PNP Government.
They know the moneyed classes won't accept Pearnel Charles for they don't see him as being bright and technically competent, and he has too much of a populist image. Shaw would be more acceptable but not when they have the choice of a Bruce Golding, the prized catch for the moneyed and professional classes. Charles' image of defender of the oppressed and downtrodden black masses and workers is great. But the 'chattering classes' love Bruce Golding and when you combine their power with that of capital - plus Golding's organisational machinery to reach the grassroots Labourites and 'treat them nice' - you have an invincible combination.
