SIXTY PER CENT of Jamaicans believe that when Opposition Leader Edward Seaga steps down from the helm of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in November, the party is more likely to win the next general election.
Results from a new Don Anderson poll, conducted on behalf of The Gleaner between July 6 and July 20, showed that close to 60 per cent of some 1,200 persons interviewed across the island felt the controversial leader's move would give the JLP a fighting chance in any future general election.
UPPER INCOME PERSONS
"This was a position taken by all demographic categories, but which was most strongly expressed by persons in the upper socio-economic group. Sixty-eight per cent of the upper income persons felt this way," said the pollster in his analysis.
The sample of persons interviewed was a nationally representative one and conveys the views of different demographic units of gender, age and social class in line with their known relative importance within the population. The margin of error is plus or minus three per cent.
Some 21 per cent of persons interviewed did not agree that Mr. Seaga's departure would strengthen the JLP in another national election. For those, said Mr. Anderson, "there is no real connection between Mr. Seaga's pending departure and the likelihood of success for the JLP at the polls."
Another 10 per cent of the respondents felt quite strongly that Mr. Seaga's pending departure would have no effect whatsoever on the JLP's chances of winning the election constitutionally due in 2007. "These persons are somewhat different from the 21 per cent, but only in terms of strength of their positions," said the pollster.
The JLP has a poor record in elections against the governing People's National Party, under the leadership of Mr. Seaga. Notable positives by the JLP under Mr. Seaga since 1980 when they won that national election were in the North East St. Ann by-election in 2001, an improved showing in the national election of 2002 and the success at the Local Government level in 2003.
