Dawn Ritch, Contributor
THESE ARE exciting times for the country. The Gleaner Poll shows 80 per cent of Jamaicans are glad that Edward Seaga has quit.
A sense of hopefulness pervades the island, and an overwhelming relief. Fifteen years of People's National Party (PNP) rule might actually come to an end at the next general election. Certainly the country is agog with talk over who will succeed P. J. Patterson and Seaga. The two events promise to be within shouting distance of each other. People feel there is a new epoch in the making. People felt that way at the start of the French Revolution, and it led to the guillotine.
Here in Jamaica that fear has been banished it seems, as people rejoice at the possibilities. Seaga's pending resignation in November has strengthened the political hand of Portia Simpson Miller in the PNP. They won't have him any longer to ensure yet another victory for the PNP, and that is a sobering thought indeed.
According to another poll elsewhere done sometime ago JLP Chairman Bruce Golding, were he a leader, would pip Portia in a general election. This seems like the greatest foolishness to me. For who would vote for someone who looks like Bruce when they can vote for someone who looks like Portia?
Bruce Golding would look perfectly well as the Prime Minister of Cayman, except they don't have one. And for that matter so would Dr. Peter Phillips and Audley Shaw. Then of course there's the no small matter of affection, otherwise known in the political realm as charisma. These gentlemen don't have it, and Portia has it in spades.
LEADERSHIP RACE
The recent entry of Pearnel Charles in the JLP leadership race at last presents a candidate with charisma on the front page, something missing in a long time. And bear in mind that he's short, fat, black, and looks like a teddy bear. He's the kind of candidate people like to love. It helps that he has a clear understanding of what must be done, and is pragmatic. He will not allow himself to be overrun by people flaunting academic degrees, even though he has one. And above all in political science, not geography. Does anybody else in the House of Representatives have one? This makes him a formidable contender to Portia, and only the most formidable can't hope to beat her at the polls. Regardless of how long the PNP has been in power.
People like to love their leader because it makes the medicine go down easier. I'm all in favour of that because leadership is 99 per cent inspiration. Without it we perish.
Decisiveness is another thing that counts, but I don't worry about this. Where there is inspiration there is presence of mind. One goes with the other.
The other advantage Pearnel Charles has in a general election is the damnable fair-mindedness of the Jamaican people. The electorate might well say that Pearnel is older than Portia, and we should give him a turn at the wheel, and we'll return to her in four or five years. This of course makes my heart sink for Portia. On the other hand Jamaica would be in good hands with him as Prime Minister, and her as Opposition Leader. A prospect she would not relish. Any electoral battle between them therefore promises to be epic.
NO FINANCING
Well might you say that I've hit upon the two people in both parties who have no financing. But if politics were business, businessmen would run. In this regard New York's Bloomberg and California's Schwarzenegger are the exceptions which prove the rule.
And it is useful to note that neither of them is ugly.
Bruce Golding doesn't have a private fortune either, but as the perennial front-runner in the JLP leadership race forever he's never been short of funds.
ANNOUNCED RESIGNATION
The announced resignation of Edward Seaga has the potential therefore to change all that. As long as Seaga remained, Bruce was his Prince Charles. But in the event of the former's abdication the field is wide open. It is inevitable that people will take a look around, and that applies equally to funders.
They will not ask who is entitled to leadership, but who can win a general election. If Portia goes forward they will want someone of equal or greater grass-roots appeal. Neither Mr. Golding nor Mr. Shaw can lay claim to even a passing familiarity with such a thing. And the fact remains that before they can be invited to the White House, they must first win a national election in Jamaica.
Politics is also about who knows what about whom. And the publication of Seaga's letter of resignation has given the PNP the clearest indication it could ever need of Golding's leadership capacity.
Despite Seaga's fulsome praise in the same letter, of Golding's many capabilities the former raises the fundamental question not only of his ability, but his capacity to lead. This coming after Golding's NDM leadership fiasco about renders him dead. If not for the leadership of the JLP, then certainly as a possible victor in the next general election. Seaga is saying that Golding not only can't lead, but he can't win.
The money Bruce raised for his leadership push was intended for use against Seaga. Seaga has now ducked. It was not money raised for use in a campaign against Pearnel Charles.
BEST ADVICE
The best advice I can give the Bruce Golding side in the JLP therefore is to count carefully who is with him. There are 26 JLP MPs in what is currently a Pearnel Charles, Bruce Golding and Audley Shaw race. When all the 26 votes are counted, they are likely to get 35. And only a politician would understand this, because in politics every head counts three times.
I hope therefore that the JLP will be able to sort out themselves in the least painful way possible. It might help focus their minds to remember that this is not about a party election in November. It is about who can win the next general election.
