By D.K. Duncan, ContributorTHE POLITICAL process has lost its appeal to the majority of the Jamaican people for well over a decade. Following the 1989 General Election, the number of voters participating in the electoral process has declined significantly. All three General Elections since have seen less than 50 per cent of the persons eligible to be registered exercising their right to vote on Election Day.
This alienation, disaffection or apathy has been the subject of continuing analysis. Attempts have been made inside and outside of the two traditional parties to encourage a re-connection with the process. Most have failed so far to have any significant electoral impact. Over the next three years opportunities will once again be provided for the majority of Jamaicans to participate or re-connect.
POLITICAL SPACE
The opportunities should arise out of the process of succession and transition in the two major parties. The process gained momentum with the announcement by the President of the People's National Party (PNP) some two years ago of his intention not to seek re-election at the next General Election. This was accelerated recently with the stated intention of the leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) not to seek re-election to that post at the party's conference later this year. This means, among other things, that for the first time since the 1944 General Election two new personalities will lead the two major political parties in the next national parliamentary elections. New ideas, new personalities especially the young, fresh perspectives are some of the ingredients necessary for a genuine renewal as the political space opens. The "audacity of hope" as expressed recently by Barak Obama at the Democratic Party Convention in the USA can once again regain its place on the national agenda. Prospects of economic prosperity and political reform may well define the character of the transition as well as the lead players in the renewal.
Unexpectedly, the JLP has taken the lead in phase two of the transition. A specific deadline for change of the Leader has been indicated. One candidate for the post has formally announced former Deputy Leader Pearnel Charles.
SECOND CANDIDATE
Today a second candidate is expected to announce the Chairman of the Party, Bruce Golding. A third potential candidate Deputy Leader Audley Shaw has stated that he is doing his "due diligence" before taking a decision. It is highly likely, however, that the race for the JLP leadership will have no more than two persons competing with Golding as the constant. The form and content of Golding's announcement today at the Conference Centre will significantly influence the character of the leadership transition process.
This character was already determined by the events at its 2003 conference. The mood for change and a desire for parliamentary electoral success manifested itself in the election of two new Deputy Leaders - Horace Chang and James Robertson - representing a challenge to the traditional leadership. Out of this internal political climate a new Secretariat under Karl Samuda emerged as well as a new Chairman Bruce Golding. The inevitable elevation of Golding to the highest level as the new JLP leader in November can help to facilitate aspects of national political renewal. As to which leader of the PNP he will face in the third phase of the transition, time will soon tell.
Several prospective candidates exist. Front-runner Portia Simpson Miller leads her main rival Peter Phillips nationally at this time. Finance Minister Omar Davies' fortunes will be determined by the level of economic prosperity at the time of voting. Paul Burke's role focuses on political renewal internally and externally. Karl Blythe remains a power-broker while Robert Pickersgill stands ready to pick up the pieces, if any. Whoever the personalities, they and the parties have an opportunity to facilitate the further opening up of political space for another attempt at renewal. Civil society, the media and individuals clearly have critical roles to play before this window of opportunity, provided by the current process of leadership transition, is closed. One Love. One Heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former Cabinet Minister and general secretary in the PNP administration of the 1970s.
