By Dennise Williams, Staff Reporter
Professor Richard Curtin, head of the Survey Research Centre at the University of Michigan, said consumers expressed
more favourable purchase plans in the third quarter survey,
during a presentation at the Terra Nova Hotel yesterday.
- RUDOLPH BROWN/Chief Photographer
BEFORE HURRICANE Ivan, both consumers and businesses were relatively confident about the local economy, the third quarter 2004 Business and Consumer Confidence Indices released by the Jamaica Conference Board, showed.
Professor Richard Curtin, head of the Survey Research Centre at the University of Michigan, presented the Confidence Indices at the Terra Nova Hotel yesterday.
Professor Curtin admitted that "We are presenting pre-Ivan data in a post-Ivan world," but added that "Looking at the effect of a hurricane on an economy, I spoke to several persons in Florida that have been badly damaged. In the aftermath of a natural disaster, an interesting thing happens: the hurricane destroys the accumulated wealth of individuals homes, furniture, etc. but adds jobs because of econstruction.
Looking at the July to September quarter, businesses were confident, but less confident than in the second quarter of April to June. While the economy was thought to be on the right track, profits were down slightly, but the negative impact of crime could not be ignored and came up in the survey time and time again.
"Firms reported profit setbacks, reversing the strong improvement in the prior quarter. The current rate of return for investments was reported to have met or exceeded original expectations by 59 per cent of all firms in the third
quarter, down from 71 per cent.
FAVOURABLE PURCHASE PLANS
"Nonetheless, consumers expressed more favourable
purchase plans in the third
quarter survey. Home buying plans were reported at 13 per cent in the survey, up from 11 per cent one quarter ago and eight per cent one year ago. Vehicle buying plans increased to 16 per cent in this quarter, up from 15 per cent a year ago. Vacation plans were reported by 27 per cent in the third quarter, up from 24 per cent in the prior quarter and 23 per cent reported a year ago."
Expectations
Businesses
Current profits to fall
Economic growth to continue
Better investment climate
Profits and finances squeezed
Consumers
Economy to improve, but jobs to remain scarce
Economic outlook unchanged
Optimistic about income gains reliance of 1/3 of Jamaican households on remittances
Plans to spend more
