John Rapley - FOREIGN FOCUSLAST WEEK, a senior adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon revealed in a newspaper interview that Sharon's plan to withdraw Israel from the occupied Gaza Strip was designed to "freeze" the political process between Israel and Palestine. On the same day the interview was published, bombs at an Egyptian resort popular with Israelis killed dozens.
As Israel prepares to withdraw from Gaza, it is sending its tanks into the crowded strip of land, allegedly to crush its enemies before leaving. This seems an impossible task. The more militants Israel kills, the more ferocity it seems to invite. Meanwhile, the Israeli government continues to build its security perimeter, gobbling up Arab land and inviting the wrath of the international community.
FAILED PROMISE
Ariel Sharon's promise to bring security to Israel appears to have failed. While he can claim that the iron fist and separation wall have reduced the number of suicide attacks in Israel proper, the country nevertheless appears to be ever more insecure. The Islamist threat seems to be getting more, not less potent. Moreover, as even the Israeli government reckons, the Islamists who target Israel may prove less amenable to negotiations than Palestinian nationalists. At the same time, Ariel Sharon's apparent determination to undermine the peace process has arguably created a self-fulfilling prophecy. As he has pulled the carpet out from under those Palestinians engaged in negotiations, he has strengthened the hand of more radical elements.
Meanwhile, regional threats abound. While Israel's government initially applauded the downfall of its old foe, Saddam Hussein, it has watched with alarm as Iraq has descended into chaos. From its vantage point, Iraq has become a haven for Islamists. Moreover, Israel believes Iraq has also become a playground for Iranian agents.
Iran could pose an even bigger threat to Israel than Iraq did. While Iraq had missiles that could reach Israel, they were not topped with particularly lethal explosives. Iran, on the other hand, is believed by many to be well on the way to producing a nuclear weapon. Moreover, the Iranians have apparently learned from Iraqi experience not to concentrate their nuclear research and production facilities, but to spread them throughout the country. This puts them beyond the reach of Israeli bombers.
In response, Israel has apparently resorted to covert tactics to try and undermine Iran's looming threat. In June, the New Yorker magazine reported that Israeli agents were busily trying to stir up the Kurds in northern Iraq, in the hopes they might offer an effective counterweight to their Iranian neighbours (with whom the Kurds have their own quarrels). This is high-stakes poker. Israel risks antagonising Turkey, an ally which, however, is anxious that the Kurds not push for autonomy.
DANGEROUS THING
Worse, Israel could, by strengthening the Kurdish push for autonomy in the north, undermine the new Iraqi government's efforts to establish its hold over the country that Saddam held together by force. That, needless to say, would not please the White House. And annoying Washington would be the most dangerous thing Israel could do at this stage.
Because of its hard-line tactics and its ambivalence to put it mildly towards the peace process, Israel is in danger of becoming a pariah state. A penchant for brashness, like the recent erroneous claim that a UN truck was used to carry Palestinian missiles, hardly helps its standing in the international community. But Israel does not need to worry for as long as it has the firm backing of the US government. It does.
But in the corridors of Israeli power, even that all-important backing, which appears sacrosanct in US politics, is thought to be at risk. There is a fear that the war on terror may return the US to its isolationist past. Israel, some Israeli hard-liners fear, may one day be cut adrift. To prepare for that eventuality, it has to begin pursuing its own regional interests, whatever their impact on the US (which, after all, has not always been such a close ally of Israel).
However, this too risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. Whether Israel has any viable alternatives to Ariel Sharon's unilateral and hard-line strategy is open to debate. What seems less debatable is that for now, Israel is little more secure for it.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
