Below we publish an extract of Senator Shirley Williams' contribution to the State of the Nation Debate on October 8, 2004.
Shirley Williams, Contributor
THE VIEW has emerged that developing countries are located almost entirely within the tropics and that this location is a contributing factor to their Third World status.
In case studies of cities in developing countries (Ahmad, UWI and Gupta, University of Leeds), Singapore was viewed as being located in an extremely favourable environment, safe from large-scale tropical storms, although subject to frequent, minor flooding controlled by well-engineered canals.
Kingston, on the other hand, was seen as being, by its very location, subject to natural hazards, which, with high population density and widespread poverty, "make the city one of the most environmentally sensitive cities in the world".
The authors placed Singapore and Kingston at two extremes. "We present case studies of cities ranging from those with limited problems and possible engineering and land-zoning solutions (e.g. Singapore) to cities where the hazards (either natural or anthropogenic) are so acute and widespread that a practical solution is difficult to achieve (e.g. Kingston and Bangkok)".
In another journal, these scientists stated, "We discuss two extreme cases: Singapore and Kingston, Jamaica. Singapore is located in a stable environment and the urbanisation-related problems of flood and slope instability have been reduced by proper building and drainage practices at considerable cost. In Kingston, the external disturbances are repetitive, large-scale and very difficult to control. The fast-growing cities in the tropics need to be carefully monitored especially when located in an unstable environment."
FREQUENCY OF
HURRICANES, STORMS
It could be argued that the toll which developing countries face, due to frequent floods, earthquakes and landslide-related damage, is such that billions of dollars are spent on recovery, hindering the countries' ability to produce.
The frequency of hurricanes and storms in Jamaica is one in every four years over the past 52 years (according to the Unit for Disaster Studies, UWI).
Of 22 systems which affected the island over this period, 13 were hurricanes, of which only two had a direct hit hurricanes Charlie and Gilbert.
Nonetheless, the damage from all systems (including those which were just tropical storms or depressions) was extensive in terms of flooding, landslides, loss of lives and property damage. Damage exceeded $6 billion and loss of over 200 lives.
Analysis of the hurricanes show that, except in two instances, Tropical Storm Alma in 1970 and Gilda in 1973, which both came from the south west of the island, all others came from the east, with two moving east to west across the island (Charlie & Gilbert) while all others moved along the south coast going west, except two which moved along the east coast and headed north.
This means that based on the activities of systems over the past 52 years, we know where the storms or hurricanes will originate and where they will head.
Similarly extensive data exist in respect of landslides and earthquakes. Ahmad reports that 80 per cent of the hilly areas of Kingston is on slopes in excess of 25 degrees and experiencing 200-300 mm of rainfall every two to five years which initiate shallow landslides.
Importantly, landslides occur in both landscape modified by human activity (denuded areas) as well as slopes under dense cover (Ahmad et al).
Knowing that we will experience flooding, landslides and earthquakes, where do we go from here?
The Unit for Disaster Studies has detailed natural hazard maps covering landslides, earthquakes, flooding, storm surge and wind hazard. In addition, various studies have listed areas islandwide which are hazardous.
WHY NO ACTION?
For example, the pre-feasibility study for the South Coast Sustainable Development Programme includes coastal studies covering St. Catherine, Clarendon, Manchester, St, Elizabeth, Westmoreland five parishes with a population of 1.1 million.
These studies forecast the hazards of Portland Cottage and Rocky Point and pointed to the rapid expansion of informal housing throughout the project area. Sadly, it must be asked: Why was action not taken to avoid the impending disaster on these villages?
Jamaica is listed by international insurers in Zone III, a zone with the likelihood of experiencing earthquakes of Modified Mercalli intensities of VIII and hurricanes with wind speed of 178- 209 km/h.
In the final analysis, we have chosen to ignore the significance of data gathered by national and international bodies on hazardous areas in our country and this is a shameful display of disregard for the life and property of our people, especially the poor.
REVIEW AREAS
The solution is not just one of relocation. Communities cannot be relocated simply on the basis that they were flooded, or are on gully banks or in coastal areas. There must be sound scientific evidence based on which levels of acceptable risk have been determined.
It could be that if the houses were raised at the required height above ground and there was adequate drainage, flooding would have been avoided. Where the infrastructure exists, thought must be given to whether corrective measures rather than relocation is the preferred choice.
Sight must not be lost of the fact that it is possible to mitigate the most challenging natural hazards by applying proper engineering and design criteria. An excellent example is Portmore.
I urge the Government to establish a task force comprised of the Superintendent of Works in each Parish Council, representatives from the Unit for Disaster Studies, planning authorities, Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), architects and engineers to:
Immediately review the areas which have emerged from studies by the Unit For Disaster Studies, national and international bodies, as well as areas recently impacted by Hurricane Ivan.
Compile a list of areas to be declared as restricted areas over which development may not take place without approval of the Unit for Disaster Studies and ODPEM.
The Government should, without delay:
Expedite revision of the building code and its enactment into law; revision to include coastal studies especially in respect of storm surge.
Conduct satellite imagery of the damage done by Hurricane Ivan; this would provide a visual and quantitative assessment.
Establish a memorandum of understanding between the Unit for Disaster Studies and all related planning agencies so that there may be ongoing dialogue and co-operation.
There must be forward planning to ensure that the process is proactive, not reactive. Our planning and building regulations to ensure compliance are archaic, with the Town and Country Planning Act dating back to 1957, the Kingston & St Andrew Building Act to 1883, and the Parish Council Building Act, 1952. The by-laws under this Act date back to 1901.
Sadly, the parishes most hit by disasters, are not covered by development orders. These are St. Andrew (above Long Lane), Hanover, most of St. Elizabeth, most of St. Catherine, St. Thomas, Portland, St. Mary. All coastal areas are covered. This means that approximately 1.5 million people, more than half the population, are living in areas not covered by any development order.
OUR OWN PROFESSIONALS
The Building Code, the technical document which sets building standards is a policy document, lacking the force of law. The Government needs to act without delay in putting the appropriate building regulations in place, this involves the revision of the building code and its enactment into law as well as the revision of development orders, especially in areas most susceptible to natural hazards.
The need to mitigate the effects of natural hazards by proper research linked to planning, has been clearly stated; we ignore at our peril. Prone as we are to natural disasters, it is critical that our country maintain a reserve of professionals architects, engineers, artisans.
It is our own professionals who built this country to date. The Bank of Jamaica, Conference Centre (a specialised building), National Arena, National Stadium, Turtle Beach, Fisherman's Point, Seacastle, Sandcastle, Points, all hotels except Americana (later Mallards Beach-Hyatt) and Oceana all were designed and built by our own professionals.
It must become a policy of the Government that Government-funded projects be undertaken by local professionals as long as the expertise exists.
The current situation where billions of dollars are spent on projects without the significant involvement of Jamaican professionals must cease.
The system of tendering, the 'design/build' tender used to identify contractors, in the absence of any site having been selected, needs to be investigated by the Contractor-General to determine whether this is in the best interest of the country.
Having reviewed the data regarding natural disasters which face us, their frequency of occurrence, the resulting damage and loss of lives and our dismal failure in planning for them, I can only conclude that we are but a Third World country, aching to be first, but lacking the consciousness and the will to rise to the challenges and moral obligations.
Unless we change our approach, we will forever be Third World.
