Dan Rather READY OR not, we're heading toward the last days before election day 2004. The contest between President Bush and Senator John Kerry still seems very close, and the prevailing sentiment among public and punditry alike, is that this is one of the most important elections in many years. From the conventions through the debates, the presidential race has dominated coverage of Campaign 2004.
So you'd be forgiven if you were barely aware that there are 34 seats up for election in the United States Senate, where Republicans continue to hold a very slim majority (51 Republican senators to 48 Democrats, with one independent Vermont Senator Jim Jeffords, who caucuses with the Democrats; then again, retiring Georgia Democrat Zell Miller, maverick firebrand of the GOP convention, often caucused with the Republicans, so it could be argued that he should fall into the Republicans' column).
In a political system where incumbency is a huge advantage in a Senate campaign, not all of these races are competitive. But just a few competitive races have the potential to make a difference. Let's start with the Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Miller. Miller might have ended up his career a Democrat in name only, as some charge, but it looks as if the Democrats are going to have a hard time holding on to even that Democratic label in Georgia, where Republican U.S. Rep. Johnny Isakson is favoured to defeat Democratic U.S. Rep. Denise Majette.
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC LOSS
This potential Democratic loss, though, figures to be offset by what is expected to be an easy win in Illinois for Democratic state legislator Barack Obama over GOP candidate Alan Keyes for the seat left open by Republican Peter Fitzgerald, who is leaving the Senate after one term. So in the battle of the political convention keynoters, it's safe to call it a draw.
Another Senate race to watch is that in Alaska, where Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski is fighting to hold on to the seat once held by her father, Governor Frank Murkowski, to which he appointed her when he was elected governor. Polls have consistently shown the race between Murkowski and her Democratic challenger, former Alaska Governor Tony Knowles, to be very tight, and the Demo-crats hope that they can pick one up here.
SWEATING
But the Republicans can't be blamed if they aren't exactly sweating because Democratic Senators Ernest Hollings (South Carolina), Bob Graham (Florida) and John Breaux (Louisiana) will be joining Zell Miller on the road to retirement. Anytime a non-incumbent Democrat runs in the South these days, it figures to be an uphill climb, and the Republicans seem confident about gaining at least Hollings' seat in South Carolina.
Three of the most interesting races are in South Dakota, Colorado and Oklahoma. The first is interesting because Democratic South Dakota Senator Tom Daschle, the Senate minority leader, is facing an unusually tough battle to hold on to his seat, with Republicans hoping for what would be an especially demoralising defeat for the Democrats. The Colorado and Oklahoma races merit special attention because they feature Democrats running strong for open seats in traditionally conservative states and might provide a good test of President Bush's election day coat-tails.
We may think of them as the 'other' races in a season where the presidency is the ultimate prize. But the Senate has enormous constitutional power, so the issue of which party controls this body is hardly a peripheral one. And finally, into this often-difficult-to-figure calculus of control, consider this: If John Kerry were to win the presidency, the Democrats would lose an incumbent seat one that would ultimately be decided by a special election.
Dan Rather is a television broadcaster.
