John Rapley - FOREIGN FOCUS ALTHOUGH POPE John Paul gives no indication of planning to go anywhere soon, his declining health has inevitably prompted Vatican-watchers into their next round of speculation. The major American television networks have already rented prime real estate in Rome so as to have backdrops of St. Peter's Basilica when the College of Cardinals next convenes.
The papacy is an anomaly, an ancient institution in a modern time. As bishop of Rome, the Pope remains one of the world's few absolute monarchs. However, his government extends over the square mile of Vatican City, after which his secular power ends. As heir to St. Peter, he enjoys power as the most authoritative of the Roman Catholic Church's bishops. The Curia, the bureaucracy of Vatican City, affords him a defining influence over the worldwide Church's affairs. Nevertheless, the Pope's powers are far from absolute.
ONLY UPON DYING
There is no provision for the removal of a pope while in office. Unless John Paul II abdicates, he will cede the papacy only upon dying. This is raising concern that his deteriorating health is permitting some of his inner-circle to take effective control of the Vatican.
Nonetheless, the papacy cannot be passed on, and the sitting pope cannot name his successor. When John Paul II dies, the College of Cardinals the "princes" of the Church will meet to choose one. There are now nearly 200 cardinals, though in fact only those younger than 80 can participate in the election, and they will choose the next pope from among their ranks. That limits the papabili to a pool of about 130 candidates.
EVENTUAL SUCCESSOR
Of those, only a handful have the requisite combination of skills and connections to make them likely popes. Even then, predictions of papal successions are notoriously unreliable, and the eventual successor often comes as a surprise. Rather than predict who the next pope will be, Vatican-watchers are more inclined to predict what type of candidate he will be.
The papacy of John Paul II has left a deep imprint upon the Church, and the changes he instituted may take decades to digest. History may eventually record that it was under his papacy that the centre of gravity of his Church shifted from Europe and into the Third World. This has not always sat well in the traditional archdioceses of Europe and North America, where John Paul's emphasis on orthodoxy has stifled emergent liberalisation movements.
In poor countries, though, John Paul retains star-power. His moral conservatism and religious orthodoxy are frequently embraced, and his criticisms of First-World selfishness and globalisation have won plaudits. He has also increased the number of Third-World cardinals in the College. If the Pope's relative neglect of the West has angered Catholics there, it probably resulted from a simple calculation by the Pope that the Church's future lies in the Third World.
Accordingly, while popes have almost always been Italian, there is a distinct possibility that the next one will come from a developing country. One papabili who is on everyone's list of likely popes is the Nigerian Cardinal Francis Arinze. He would, if elected, become the first African pope in modern history (there were African popes in the early centuries of the Church).
STUDENTS OF THE VATICAN
Nevertheless, most students of the Vatican are expecting that even if the cardinals stick with a European pope, they will opt for a "safe" candidate. They will want someone whose health ensures he doesn't die too soon, as John Paul I did, but who is not so young that he lasts as long as this pope has. They will probably also prefer someone with a personality not as strong as that of John Paul II.
Nevertheless, the long shadow of John Paul II will likely rest over the next pope, and many to follow. The shift towards the Third World is almost certain to continue, if only because the Church is in relative decline in the First World.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
