John Rapley - FOREIGN FOCUS TENSIONS ARE rising in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, as crowds stream into the city to protest the outcome of last weekend's presidential election. The contest pitted the current Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovich, against Viktor Yushchenko. Mr. Yanukovich, the choice of outgoing President Leonid Kuchma, promised to tie Ukraine more closely to Russia, whereas Mr. Yushchenko sought to orient Ukraine more towards the West.
The election opened up serious rifts in Ukraine, and between Russia and the West. Ukraine, which long chafed under Moscow's rule, was quick to secure her freedom when the Soviet Union collapsed. However, religious, cultural and ethnic ties between Ukrainians in the east of the country and their Russian neighbours remain strong, and the country gravitated back into the Russian orbit.
DIFFERENT IN THE WEST
However, things are different in the west of the country, where the Orthodox Church that joins Russians and eastern Ukrainians gives place to a Catholic tradition. This has given the west of the country a long-standing orientation towards Western Europe. Mr. Yushchenko, who wanted Ukraine to join the European Union and the NATO alliance, thereby embodied a wish to weaken Ukraine's dependence upon Russia.
The election came at a delicate time in the history of Eastern Europe. With several former Soviet republics having joined NATO, Russia could be forgiven for feeling she was being encircled by former enemies. With the end of communism, the former East Bloc and the newly-independent republics of the former Soviet Union became a competition ground between West and East. Gradually, new front lines emerged. Several countries joined NATO and the EU. Others reasserted their ties to Moscow. Ukraine then became an important front line.
Not surprisingly, Russian President Vladimir Putin openly supported the candidacy of Mr. Yanukovich, then welcomed his "victory" even before the official announcement of results. The problem is that while Russia declared the elections clean, observers from the EU and the U.S. declared that the process had been riven with irregularities. Moreover, exit polls suggested that Mr. Yushchenko was on his way to victory. So when the first official results indicated an insurmountable lead for Mr. Yanukovich, the opposition cried fowl and took to the streets.
So far, the protests have remained peaceful. However, the ranks of the demonstrators have swelled, raising the possibility of some kind of 'Velvet Revolution' in Ukraine. Mr. Yushchenko even tried to have parliament annul the official result. He failed to mobilise the quorum needed for the act to pass. He now finds himself in the curious position of needing the support of the communist party for such a measure to succeed (so far, the party has not taken a position on the matter).
PRESSURE UKRAINE ON THE ELECTION
Yet while Western governments are left with the paradoxical wish that the communists might help a pro-capitalist government take power, there is likely to be little more than rhetoric that they can use to pressure Ukraine on the election. Even though Mr. Putin retreated from his original endorsement of the outcome in the face of widespread criticism, it is clear that Moscow still wants Mr. Yanukovich in office. It is too important to Western countries to prevent their relations with Russia growing frosty. There is a long awareness in Western Europe that if Russia feels threatened, she can become dangerous.
MORE DEPENDENT
Moreover, Western countries in general and the U.S. in particular are growing more dependent on Russian oil, as they try to wean themselves from less certain Middle Eastern supplies. As if that is not reason enough to placate Moscow, the U.S. wants Russian support in its war on terrorism. So as unhappy as they are with the process of the election, Western governments seem unlikely to do much more than cry foul. Consequently, the Ukrainian opposition has to look internally for the makings of any peaceful revolution. In particular, they will have to hope that the security forces stand aside as they take their struggle to the streets.
The intentions of the police, military and intelligence services remain unclear. They have said they will uphold the law, but there are some indications that they might not do the government's bidding if ordered to crush the protests. Either way, the showdown looks likely to come to a head before it is resolved.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
