JAMAICA IS basing its energy future on what now appears to be a shaky foundation. That foundation is the belief that Trinidad and Tobago will be able to supply the island with cheap natural gas well into the future.
The latest information from the twin-island republic, as reported in our Wednesday Business publication, however, is that it has proven reserves of natural gas to last for less than 11 years, taking into consideration its current usage and project commitments. In theory, the country has a lot more potential reserves, but that has not yet been proven.
In fact, we have learned that their energy minister in his last budget presentation revised the proven reserves figure downwards. This is bad news for Jamaica, given the fact that our natural gas utilisation project is supposed to come on stream in 2008.
We believe it is likely, however, that T&T will discover more gas reserves, given its potential. But we also believe that our sister CARICOM territory will take on more commitments for its energy resources. The reason is that T&T is located next door to Venezuela, which has quite substantial gas reserves.
Several multi-national companies which are heavy natural gas users are locating in Trinidad because of its political stability. Their goal is ultimately to harness the Venezuelan resources through their Trinidad plants as Venezuela is undergoing a period of political turmoil.
While it makes eminent sense for heavy industrial companies with long-term strategic interests in Venezuela to locate in Trinidad, for Jamaica the situation appears more uncertain. We need to remember that if Trinidad does not have the gas to deliver, then there will be no gas for us to get.
Additionally, we are aware that Jamaica is not unique in its interest in increasing its use of natural gas. There is a massive switch internationally, towards its use. The result is that a once cheap resource which was formerly treated as a nuisance has become less cheap. With its increasing utilisation, we expect it to become even less so. We have heard no arguments to convince us otherwise.
It is clear that Jamaica is at a point when it needs to make some major decisions regarding its energy policy. But it has been at that point for over two decades. Rather than having a national debate and building a consensus, the public has been told that the expensive project to switch our energy reliance to natural gas is good, and that depending on T&T is even better.
Before we embark on such an endeavour though, we believe the public needs to know what the alternatives are and how they compare to the use of natural gas. We also believe the drawbacks of the natural gas project need to be aired, rather than waiting to face them after scarce national resources have been expended.
THE OPINIONS ON THIS PAGE, EXCEPT FOR THE ABOVE, DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE GLEANER.
