- Norman Grindley/Staff Photographer
Voters at recently held by-election in Glengoffe, St.Catherine.
Anthony Myers, Contributor
THE BETHEL Town and Mount Industry Parish Council by-elections are now history. The ruling People's National Party (PNP) not only retained the Bethel Town Division, but defeated the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the Mount Industry Division which, based on historical data, can be regarded as JLP territory. Let us first look at the facts as they relate to the results of the Mount Industry Electoral Division. This electoral division is located in North Eastern St. Catherine, one of the three electoral divisions in the constituency that were all won by the Jamaica Labour Party in the June 19, 2003 Local Government Election.
The Mount Industry Parish Council Division was created in 1974, up to 2003 we have had seven elections, the JLP winning five times to the PNP two. It is interesting to note that the PNP victories 1977 and 1998 could be regarded as spin-off from the massive victory they had at the Parliamentary level in 1976; 47-13 and 1997; 50 10. One can equally say that the 1981 landslide for the JLP when they had a majority of 1,042 votes in the Mount Industry Electoral Division was a direct spin-off of their massive victory in 1980; 51 9. Outside of these three elections, the JLP won the Mount Industry Electoral Division with a majority of 168 in 1986, in 1990 297, and 2003 209.
VICTORY MARGINS
It is therefore very clear that in spite of the JLP winnings, outside of 1981, the victory margins have been very close. A careful examination of the 27 polling divisions (PDs) in this electoral division points to an area that has always given the JLP overwhelming support. This community is no other than Grateful Hill.
In the June 2003 election, the majority for the electoral division was 209 but the PDs 87-90, which is identified with the Grateful Hill community, gave the JLP a net victory margin of 218. The PNP seem to have been fully aware of this and they broke down the electoral division into eight clusters and assigned party stalwarts to work in these areas. The most difficult area as already pointed out, Grateful Hill, was assigned to the chairman of the Party, Robert Pickersgill. Other stalwarts assigned as cluster managers were the regional chairman, Horace Dalley; campaign director, Dr. Paul Robertson; State Minister Harry Douglas; Former MPs Phyllis Mitchell and Alethia Barker; sitting Councillor, John Wilson and former Councillor, Enos Lawrence.
The campaign manager was Benton Woodbine. The combination of Pickersgill and Woodbine proved unbeatable as the party chairman, apart from campaigning in his cluster, visited the division every day from nomination day to election day. He was the guest speaker at every Jam Session (music, drinks and food). He even attended church with the PNP candidate, Donnell 'Bolo' Marriott.
A careful analysis of the results in the chairman's cluster had the JLP polling 369 votes down by 1.07 per cent to the PNP 219, up by 41.2 per cent when compared to the June 2003 Local Government Election. I therefore concluded that this is where the JLP's demise started and the domino effect was irreversible. The preliminary results have the PNP polling 1,350 votes an increase of 326 over the 1,024 votes they got in 2003 to the JLP 1,294 an increase of 61 over the 1,233 they received in 2003.
PNP MACHINERY
There can be no doubt that the PNP machinery was at its best as it brought out 265 more supporters thus wiping out the JLP's 209 margin of victory in June 2003. It seems therefore that the PNP supporters were more motivated to cast their votes as against the JLP supporters. What could be the real reason? What can I say about Bethel Town?
This electoral division is PNP territory. Apart from 1947 and 1951 when an Independent candidate defeated the PNP candidate by polling 568 votes to the PNP 480 and was returned unopposed in 1951, the PNP's Sydney Clarke dominated the Bethel Town Division winning in 1956, 1960, 1966, 1967 and 1974, five consecutive victories. In 1977, new kid on the block, the late Cleveland 'Singer' Brown succeeded Sydney Clarke and carried the PNP flag with distinction losing only in 1981 to the JLP. He won in 1977, 1986, 1990, 1998 and 2003. Bethel Town Electoral Division which was created in 1947 in the constituency of F. L. B. 'Slave Boy' Evans, Westmore-land Eastern, was shifted to the then newly created North East West-moreland constituency in 1967.
However, when North East Westmoreland was removed from the map in the Constituencies (Boundaries) Exercise in 1992/1993 and Eastern Westmoreland was restored, Bethel Town once again became a part of that constituency.
Of the 14 elections from 1947 to 2004 in the Bethel Town Electoral Division, the PNP won the 11 times, Independent twice and JLP once. Last Thursday, November 25, 2004, of the 4,824 electors on the voters' list, the PNP polled 1,701 votes to the JLP 667, a majority of 1,034. The voter turnout was a high 49.1 per cent for a By-election when compared to 33.8 per cent in June 2003. The winning PNP candidate majority was the largest in the 57 years history of electoral contest in the Bethel Town electoral division.
It would be remiss of me not to congratulate the Member of Parliament, Most Hon. P. J. Patterson for his stewardship and indeed the choice of candidate. I have every reason to believe that history will judge him positively for the leadership qualities he has displayed both at the constituency and the national level. I pray that whoever succeeds him would have learnt from him the art of the importance of team work, self-abnegation, utter patience and, equally important, the maintenance of party unity in spite of many criticisms within and outside of the party.
TRIBUTE
In closing, let me pay tribute to the party cadres on both sides of the fence (PNP and JLP) as they conducted an election that was free and fair and free from fear, one man, one vote, same man, same vote. More power to the workers of the Electoral Office of Jamaica. The conduct of the electors based on information received was in keeping with the true meaning of democracy, which is a process, an unending struggle, a hard, gruelling battle. Its best benefits are not the easy garlands found on arrival at a superior political position. They are the toughness, the heroic constancy, the stamina developed during the desperate climb upward.
So fellow Jamaicans, do not for a moment write off the Jamaica Labour Party, they shall return. The question must therefore be: Can the PNP create the level of economic growth, provide the jobs for the many unemployed young people and bring the crime rate to manageable level? Lest we forget, 2006 is just around the corner so is 2007. Let us give God the glory as we look back and give thanks and look forward and take courage.
Let us throw open the gates knowing very well that a refulgent day is dawning.
Anthony 'Tony' Myers is a statistician and political analyst.
