D.K. Duncan
FINANCE MINISTER and Chairman of the People's National Party's (PNP) Region 3, Omar Davies, took another step towards his objective of becoming the next Prime Minister of Jamaica. He became the first candidate in the PNP formally to launch his campaign.
This followed a major intervention by the front-runner Portia Simpson Miller at a Press Asso-ciation of Jamaica (PAJ) function the previous week. The Minister of Local Government and Vice President of the PNP took the opportunity to articulate her vision which she hopes the country will share. This was a clear signal that a formal announcement is likely to come soon.
2005 ELECTIONS
The finance minister, using the modus operandi of a "gathering
of friends", was able to send a strong message that he will be a significant force in the leadership transition process in the PNP. It is highly unlikely that this public 'soft' launch would have taken place without serious consideration. It suggests that the timetable for the elections of a new PNP leader could be earlier than later.
The postponed 2004 Party's conference is scheduled for the third week in January next year. It is not unreasonable to assume that the PNP President P.J. Patterson could be more specific in his timetable to demit office.
If this is so, then Omar Davies' campaign team would need time to step up their activities if he is to overhaul the front runners Portia Simpson Miller and Peter Phillips.
The Minister of National Security and PNP Vice President has made his intentions clear although he has not yet formally launched his campaign.
The 'delegates campaign' led by presidential aspirant Paul Burke is set to be launched on February 6, 2005. This will end the first phase of Burke's 'Campaign for Trans-formation' which saw his team interacting with delegates at the parish level over the past several months. It will take place fast on the heels of the proposed PNP's one day conference on January 22, 2005. The mood and composition of the delegates at that launch should be a good indication of things to come.
The finance minister's launch at this time, as well as Paul Burke's date for his campaign launch, is the most concrete indicator so far that there could be a new PNP President in 2005.
OMAR'S CHALLENGE
The first quarter of the chronological year or, to put it another way, the last quarter of the financial year (Q.4) is usually a very busy time for finance ministers. This will be no different in the coming year. Omar Davies' fortunes depend largely on the outcomes in the economy. Facing some challenging economic targets, he has to continue to keep his eye on the books.
The successful meeting of these targets will continue to positively influence the investment climate. An improved investment climate lays the basis for growth and, hopefully, jobs. Therefore, more than any of the aspirants, the Region 3 chairman has to convert what seems to be divergence into convergence managing an economy with fiscal prudence while attracting the support of party activists. This is a monumental task.
Can the delegates and the main players in the economy share a single vision inclusive of the methodology for implementation? Most of the participants at his "soft launch" feel confident that he has the necessary leadership skills to accomplish this task. The response of the party delegates over the next few months of campaigning will determine how effective they are in communicating this view.
COLLECTIVE RESPONSIBILITY
The security minister also has a daunting portfolio. Faced with a record homicide rate for 2004, his team will no doubt try to rely on the documented reduction in other areas of criminal activity.
Despite presiding over other portfolios with some success, he may choose to invoke the doctrine of collective responsibility. It will be interesting to see how the four Cabinet Ministers who aspire to become Prime Minister handle this particular issue.
One Love, One heart.
Dr. D.K. Duncan is a dental surgeon and a former Cabinet minister and General Secretary in the PNP Administration of the 1970s.
