Dennise Williams, Staff ReporterPAN CARIBBEAN Financial Services Limited (PCFS) held their breakfast review of the Jamaican economy at the Hilton Hotel on Wednesday.
PCFS Chairman Richard Byles and PCFS President and Chief Executive Officer Donovan Perkins informed guests that their breakfast series is part of PCFS's objective to "support informed business decisions."
Guest speaker, Dr. Peter-John Gordon of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), gave a forecast of the performance of each sector of the economy for the period October to December 2004. "Overall, we project that the economy will grow by 0.2 per cent during this last quarter of the year." Dr. Gordon segregated the industries and spoke of their prospects for the year-end.
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY
& FISHING
"This sector was hit hardest by Hurricane Ivan, hence we project a negative growth for the end of the year. It takes time for crops to grow. As a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), we forecast a decline of 18 per cent in this sector."
MINING
"We see a gradual return to
pre-Hurricane Ivan capacity utilitization rates at alumina plants. Hence mining will grow by 1.3 per cent of GDP."
MANUFACTURING
"It is projected that this sector will experience a decline of 3.8 per cent of GDP as a result of the decline in petroleum products, blamed largely on the recent explosion of the Petrojam refinery."
CONSTRUCTION
A strong growth sector, "This sector benefits from renovations to houses, commercial building and the continued building of the island's infrastructure. It is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent of GDP."
ELECTRICITY AND WATER
"Because the decline was attributed to the hurricane, we project a growth of 1.4 per cent with the sector returning to pre-Ivan levels."
TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMUNICATIONS
"The growth in this sector is projected to be 3.4 per cent of GDP. This is attributable to the increased activities at seaports and corresponding storage requirements due to the festive season."
DISTRIBUTION
"Due to renovations of properties, this sector will experience a 1.5 per cent growth."
FINANCE & INSURANCE SERVICES
"Despite low interest rates and moratoriums on loan repayments, this sector will experience a decline of one per cent."
MISCELLANEOUS SERVICES
"This sector includes hotels, restaurants and clubs. We project a 3.4 per cent growth in this sector due to increased tourism activities."
Overall, Dr. Gordon said that the PIOJ projected the economy would grow by 1.4 per cent in 2004.
Host of the breakfast seminar, PCFS, recently acquired a seat on the Jamaica Stock Exchange and will be launching their brokerage division by the summer of 2005.
