MIAMI (Reuters):
NEXT YEAR'S Atlantic hurricane season will again be more active than usual but is unlikely to be a repeat of this year's disaster, a noted storm forecaster said on Friday. On the heels of the most-destructive season in more than a decade, Colorado State University professor William Gray said the 2005 season will produce 11 tropical storms and hurricanes, slightly more than the average but four less than last year.
Next year's storms are also unlikely to be as intense or to hit land as frequently as this season, which officially ended on Tuesday. Of the 15 tropical storms in the 2004 Atlantic season, nine developed into hurricanes. Six of those were major hurricanes, with sustained winds of more than 110 mph. Four of the hurricanes hit Florida in a six-week span, causing damage that may exceed the US$25 billion-plus toll of Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
UNUSUAL STEERING CURRENTS
Forecasters say it was a rare combination of powerful hurricanes and unusual steering currents that caused Florida's pain this year. "We do not anticipate this same optimal combination of hurricane formation and steering conditions to be present in 2005," Philip Klotzbach, a member of the Colorado State forecasting team, said in a written statement.
"Next year's landfall numbers are likely to be significantly less than what occurred in 2004." The team bases its forecasts on readings of sea water temperatures, atmospheric winds and pressures, the strength of the El Nino warm-water phenomenon in the eastern Pacific, and other climate predictors.
Of the predicted 11 storms next year, Gray said six will become hurricanes, with sustained winds of more than 74 mph, and three of those will be major hurricanes. The average hurricane season produces 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes. Gray said there was a 69 per cent chance - the long-term average is 52 per cent - of at least one major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast next year.
RECOVERING FROM BEATINGS
For storm-battered Florida and the U.S. east coast, the chance of being hit by a major hurricane is 49 per cent, compared to the long-term average of 31 per cent. Florida is still recovering from beatings administered by hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne, which all struck during August and September.
It was the first time a single state had been hit by four hurricanes since 1886. Grenada, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the Dominican Republic and Haiti also were punished by hurricanes this year. Gray's team predicted El Nino will be "neutral to slightly warm" next year. Strong El Nino events, with very warm water, tend to dampen Atlantic hurricane activity.
