Real and present threat
published: Tuesday | January 4, 2005

By Servel Miller, Contributor

AT THE time of writing this article the body count from the tsunami disaster is 126,000 and the direct damage to building and infrastructure projected to be over $8 billion . I hope this will be a warning to leaders in the Caribbean and particularly Jamaica, that natural hazards present a real and present threat to our well-being.

Tsunamis have affected Jamaica in the past and it will happen again. Very destructive tsunamis occurred in 1692, 1755, 1761, 1842, 1867, 1918, and 1946. Scores of smaller ones are in the records too. Run-ups associated with our tsunamis are not as great as the Pacific and Indian Ocean events, but some typical numbers are four-seven metres. We therefore need to be prepared in the best possible way.

I was happy to read that Caribbean governments are considering requesting the expansion of the tsunami warning system to the Caribbean and I pray they will find the funds to do so. It is one thing having a warning system in place, it is another been prepared when there is a pending disaster.

WARNING

At least two of the countries affected by the recent disaster, did get a warning, but with no proper tsunami disaster plan, not much was done. I hope this will be a warning to us. We are struggling to cope with a simple flooding event, what would we have done if affected by a disaster of the magnitude as that which recently devastated several Asian and African countries? The ODPEM and local councils need to be strengthened and given more resources to develop and implement proper disaster plans.

Jamaica is not only prone to tsunamis generated in the Caribbean Sea, but from those as far away as Europe and Africa. The 1755 Lisbon tele-tsunami is believed to have affected the Caribbean. Work this year by the team at the Benfield Hazard Centre in the UK calculated that should the Cumbre Vieja volcano in the Canary Island erupt, the resulting collapse of the landmass in the sea will generate a mega tsunami, which would reach the Caribbean in approximately 9 hours. The waves would be up to 50 metres high. A wave of 50 metres should it reach Jamaica, would be devastating to most coastal towns. The effect of a wave of such magnitude will not only affect the coastal towns but may travel inland as far as Half-Way Tree.

The south coast is particularly prone to tsunami/storm surge, with the parishes of; Kingston, St, Catherine, Clarendon, St Elizabeth and Westmoreland expected to be severely affected.

While tsunami is in the spotlight let us not forget that Jamaica is particularly prone to a number of natural hazards. In addition to hurricane, landslides, flooding and earthquakes have caused severe damage in the past and we need to continue to develop plans to deal with these hazards.

Servel Miller is a researcher into natural hazards, Geography Department, University College Chester, U.K. Email servelmiller@chester.ac.uk. Via Go-Jamaica