Garwin Davis, Gleaner WriterFORGET THE guessing games, Prime Minister P.J. Patterson will end his storied political career at his party's annual conference in September.
And here is another scoop. No, he will not be an understudy to Kofi Annan at the United Nations nor will he be joining former political nemesis Eddie Seaga on the campus of the University of the West Indies.
Instead, Mr. Patterson, when not busy advising his three grandchildren on why they should stay away from politics, will try his hands at what as now become a favourite pastime of former leaders writing books.
With that little bit of information out of the way, and with only about seven months to go before the delegates of the People's National Party (PNP) decide on who will take the country into the post-Patterson era, it goes without saying that the battle is now on between the contenders vying for leadership.
So far, five persons have declared their hands: Dr. Omar Davies, Dr. Karl Blythe, Portia Simpson Miller, Dr. Peter Phillips and Bobby Pickersgill.
At this well advanced stage of the game and even with the knowledge that anything can happen between now and then, it would appear though that the battle is really between Mrs. Simpson Miller, Dr. Phillips and, maybe to a lesser extent, Dr. Davies.
REASON TO HOPE
Let's face it, Dr. Blythe, whose surprise first place showing at last week's PNP vice-presidential race at the Mico Teachers' College has given his campaign reasons to hope, will not be Prime Minister of Jamaica. It is simply not on the cards. He was a direct beneficiary of what is known in political circles as horse trading and is not a heart beat away from occupying residency at Vale Royal as some pundits seem to be suggesting.
Mr. Pickersgill, like Dr. Blythe, is at best a power broker when the big day arrives. Look for him to throw his support behind one of the other candidates and could be the most important horse trader, especially if the race should come down to the wire.
And what of Dr. Davies? While many are convinced that he will be a force to be reckoned with, former Minister of Local Government Arnold Bertram may well be right in his assessment that the finance minister's campaign so far has failed to excite. What would be interesting is where would Dr. Davies, if realising that his candidacy is not going anywhere, throw his support. With big business seemingly on his side, he could easily work out a deal where he becomes the deputy prime minister or the finance minister for whoever he supports... this could be real telling.
This now leaves us with Mrs. Simpson Miller and Dr. Phillips. Many are of the view that this is where the race lies.
Mrs. Simpson Miller's supporters are convinced that the race is hers to lose and that unlike 1992 when she lost out to Mr. Patterson, this will be the Local Government's Minister shining hour.
They may well be right but should be careful of not being too over-confident. Mrs. Simpson Miller, while popular... very popular... with the electorate, may not command the same sort of leverage with the rank and file members within her own party.
ELECTORATE WON'T DECIDE
This could be very critical indeed, especially since it won't be the electorate deciding who the next PNP leader and prime minister will be. If Mrs. Simpson Miller is to win she will have to form meaningful alliances. Failure to do that will certainly see a repeat of 1992.
And Dr. Phillips? There is a quiet confidence coming from his camp that could leave one to conclude that he is comfortable with how the race has been going. His supporters have been at pains to explain that not much should be read into Dr. Phillips' third place finish in the vice-presidential race, saying he could have finished a clear second if he didn't have to simultaneously worry about the candidacies of both Dr. Paul Robertson and Paul Burke. They note that his delegates were force to carry Mrs. Simpson Miller on their slate so as to keep Burke from possibly overtaking Dr. Robertson. This, they say, accounted for Mrs. Simpson Miller finishing ahead of their man, promising that things will be different come September.
They are also counting on the fact that Dr. Phillips has the majority support of his ministerial colleagues and also those at the parliamentary level.
If this is true, then Dr. Phillips might really be the candidate to beat despite the obvious claims of Mrs. Simpson Miller. This is not to say he doesn't have problems. The crime situation continues to be the albatross around his neck and whether real or imagined, he had better address what is clearly an unfair notion that the problem is solely his and his alone.
Real interesting times ahead... could be a September to remember.
