Omar Anderson, Gleaner Writer
MEEKS
POLITICAL ANALYSTS credit the People's National Party (PNP) lead over the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) to improvements to national infrastructures and infighting in the JLP last year.
A Gleaner-commissioned Don Anderson poll published on Sunday showed the PNP ahead by 7.9 per cent, a gain of 10 per cent since a similar poll was done July last year.
Of 1,000 persons polled between February 3 and 11 this year, 32.4 said they would vote for the PNP, against 24.5 for the JLP.
UNDECIDEDS AND RELUCTANTS
The poll noted that the 'undecideds' and the 'reluctants' remain high this time at 41 per cent.
Professor Brian Meeks, head of social and political change in the Department of Government at the University of the West Indies (UWI), said last year's JLP leadership squabble should, in part, be credited to the PNP's lead.
"You are going to have a fallout in popular support," he stated, adding that he expected the margin to be narrowed, as last month's ascendancy of Bruce Golding as party leader is expected to resolve the leadership issue.
Professor Meeks, however, noted that the poll raises certain political uncertainties, as to what the PNP may be doing right to make it still attractive, despite cuts in the budgets, and the record crime levels.
But the professor pointed to national projects like Highway 2000 and other foreign direct investments that may also account for the PNP's lead. "We've not been focusing on what the PNP is doing to attract the electorate," he remarked.
Professor Meeks also pointed to 41 per cent of respondents in the poll who said they were undecided or would not vote for either party. He said this 41 per cent could be important when the next election is called.
"If the early tendencies shift towards the PNP, unless Golding does something very dramatic, you may well be looking at a fifth term," Professor Meeks predicted.
For his part, columnist Lloyd B. Smith said despite the ills affecting the PNP, the poll results "clearly suggest it (PNP) has been doing something right".
According to him, the upper and middle class are leaning towards the PNP because they may have a positive view of the policies of Finance Minister Dr. Omar Davies. He added that older persons who support the governing party benefit from housing and education policies.
JLP NOT WORRIED
In the meantime, Opposition Leader Dr. Ken Baugh said the poll results did not worry the party.
"It (poll) was done when we (JLP) were having our internal conflicts in deciding the leadership of the party," the Opposition Leader told The Gleaner, adding that the poll was conducted right after the PNP's rescheduled annual conference when the party might have experienced an exceptional goodwill.
