John RapleySOME NEO-CONSERVATIVES in the Bush administration dreamed that they could light a fire of democracy in Iraq that would then blow through the Middle East. Of course, that's not the reason they said they were going into Iraq. However, since the campaign to eliminate Iraq's weapons of mass destruction turned out to be a dud, they may well now gloat that their secondary goal has been a big hit after all.
That is because recent weeks have seen some dramatic developments in the politics of the Arab world. Palestinians held free elections to choose a new president. Iraqis went to the polls in an election which turned out to be no worse than feared, and perhaps even a little better. The Egyptian president announced that for the first time ever he would stand in a competitive election, rather than the usual rubber-stamp process. And in street demonstrations reminiscent of the recent peaceful uprising in Ukraine, the Lebanese have forced an unpopular government from office.
Is a fresh wind finally blowing through the Middle East, a region where democracy has had a rough ride? Perhaps, though it is too early to be sure. More-over, the Iraqi occupation is probably not the catalyst. Most observers say the Palestinian election has had a bigger psychological impact in the Arab world. As for Lebanon, that country has long had a vibrant -- often contentious - civil society, so there is nothing terribly new there.
For its part, Egypt may be liberalising, and part of the reason appears to be pressure coming from the White House. Still, it is much too early to say how far this process will go. Egypt's ruling party so controls the country that even in free elections, President Hosni Mubarak seems all but assured of victory. Only if he legalises the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood would he face stiff opposition. It remains to be seen whether he will countenance this, but for now it seems unlikely.
WORRISOME SCENARIO
Lebanon actually presents a worrisome scenario. There, the combined opposition of Christians, Druze and Sunni Muslims pressured a government backed by Syria. Syria has maintained a troop presence in Lebanon for the last three decades, and the Lebanese opposition wants them to leave. They would also like the Syrians to stop meddling in their politics. Indeed, many Lebanese blame the Syrians for the recent murder of former prime minister Rafik Hariri, a popular politician who was threatening to return to politics on an opposition platform.
However, many Lebanese also remember that it was Syrian occupation that in no small measure ended their country's debilitating civil war. The wounds opened by that conflict could easily reopen. It was painfully obvious that Lebanon's poor but politically-organised Shi'ites were not joining the opposition rallies. And when they crowded into the streets of Beirut in a huge pro-Syrian rally this week, it became apparent that the withdrawal of the Syrians would not necessarily usher in an era of peace and harmony.
INSURGENT LEADER
For their part, the Syrians are being cagey. They are talking of a retreat to the border, but not necessarily a withdrawal from Lebanon. Nevertheless, Damascus must be feeling isolated just now. With the Americans to their east, and the Israelis and now-restive Lebanese to their West, they are finding that even some of their Arab allies are pressuring them on Lebanon. Reveal-ing the strains, they recently turned over a much-wanted insurgent leader to the Iraqis, an apparent effort to mollify the Americans.
It would appear that the Syrians are allowing Iraqi insurgents to operate from their soil, simply because they need to keep the Americans on the defensive. There is, after all, no love lost between Washington and Damascus. But their game is a dangerous one.
However, will American pressure lead to democratisation? That appears to be a bit much to hope for just now. Other countries in the region are making largely cosmetic changes to their political systems, betraying the style but not much of the substance of democracy. Like Syria's Lebanese retreat, these may lessen US pressure, but still leave the region under largely-autocratic rule. A wind is blowing through the Middle East. But it is too early to say if it is anything more than a gentle breeze on an otherwise quiet day.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government UWI, Mona.
