Robert Buddan/ColumnistRecent Don Anderson/Gleaner Company polls raise considerations about elections, leaders, and voters. Having won local government elections in 2003, the JLP now risks a reversal in the local elections due in 2006. If this happens, it would be the first time that an opposition party wins and then loses local elections in one parliamentary term.
The JLP's reversal in the polls could mean that it has not been effective in local government. I believe it more likely means that the country makes judgements on national rather than on local issues, the state of the national rather than the local party organisations, and its perceptions of national party leaders as against of local ones. It forms opinions more as one national community than as separate local communities.
The JLP claimed the 2003 local government elections as a referendum on the government's performance, if not its very legitimacy. Even so, its margin of victory did not convince that a clear enough victory had signalled a new and stable realignment of voters. Its popular vote of 52 per cent to the PNP's 48 per cent caused a mere 33 of the 227 local government divisions to change hands. This was enough to give it control over 12 of the 13 parish councils but this is an electoral absurdity that is not unusual in first-past-the post systems. Furthermore, one year after in July 2004, the JLP's lead remained slim being within that poll's margin of error.
The PNP excused its loss on the grounds of circumstances of the time, specifically the tough budget. It did not regard the
elections as a referendum since the government had been returned to power only nine months before. Mr. Patterson added that, "when you look at the voting pattern, we are doing what keeps us within striking distance for the next round." By February 2005, it was for the JLP to keep within striking distance of the PNP as the latter strengthens the economy and translates its retreat on party reforms in late 2003 into a recovery of lost political ground.
Party Succession
While the PNP has a comfortable lead over the JLP, Portia Simpson Miller stands safely ahead of her rivals who hope to succeed Mr. Patterson. Paradoxi-cally, PNP delegates voting for party vice presidents around the same time, were not as flattering to her, and it is their votes that count. It would have been interesting if the poll had mirrored the delegates system of voting by asking the public to cast their 'votes' for a number of candidates in some order of preference. If this had been done the margin and even some positions might have been different. As it is, two different systems of 'voting' were involved.
One theory explains the
difference between the poll and the votes of the delegates as a
consequence of tactical voting. Even if this was the case, it is still important to recognise that party activists are very different from the general population in their
perceptions and judgements. This reinforces the argument for electing a party leader from among the broadest membership of the party.
The profile of Mrs. Simpson Miller's supporters tells a story. She is supported by a majority of females (57 per cent), the young people (62 per cent), and low income voters (59 per cent). The PNP's overall
support is, however, stronger among the upper and middle income voters, and older as against younger voters.
This means that Mrs. Simpson is holding the low income support base of the party together. Many of the poorest and most vulnerable low income households are headed by females so there must be a social basis for her gender support as well. Very importantly, she has strong support among the young voters, the ones least likely to vote or take an interest in politics, and who could make the biggest difference between the two parties in the next two elections.
The polls confirm a longer-term trend (see Don Anderson/Gleaner polls of 1995 and 2002) by which younger persons (15-25) express less interest in politics, are less likely to register and to vote. Young persons, because of their stage in the political life-cycle, are most vulnerable to the economy, crime and educational mobility. Dr. Phillips and Dr. Davies both emphasise education, crime, and the economy in their campaigns. For the good of the country and the youth, let us hope their
policies and plans in these areas succeed from which their own campaigns will also benefit.
Leadership and
Party Standings
While Mr. Golding's ascension to the JLP's leadership was thought to be better for the party than Mr. Seaga's leadership, this was not enough to maintain the JLP's lead. The polls suggested that the JLP's internal fighting might have overshadowed Mr. Golding's 'new and different' image for the JLP while the PNP's lead up to its vice-presidential contest and the choices available among the contestants were seen as positive by the public.
The PNP came out of the polls looking good on crime-fighting strategy and on party democracy. Most of those polled felt that Operation Kingfish has been successful to date; that the new police commissioner will do a better job than his predecessor, and supported Minister Phillips' plan to bring in foreign officers to help the local police.
Most respondents also felt that the PNP's five-person succession race was good for democracy in the party and showed that the party had leadership options.
However, the PNP still has to resolve the difference between how party delegates think compared to the judgement of the wider population if its leadership election is going to representative. A small number of delegates are more likely to influence outcomes through tactical voting (horse-trading); is more likely to be personally influenced by candidates; is less diverse than the wider
population; and is more likely as party activists to act by the core values of the party rather than the national values of the society.
For instance it is probably not the case that party delegates come from the upper and middle income groups, or reflect the age or even gender distribution in proportion to the wider society. It is for this reason that the U.S. eventually opted for primary elections to lessen the influence of activists and those who controlled the party machine in order to open up voting for presidential candidates to a wider group of party supporters.
The polls also suggested that a large number of voters are making up their minds early about which party to vote for in 2006 and 2007. Presumably, voters expect Portia Simpson to be PNP president. We do not know how they would vote if Karl Blythe, Peter Phillips or Omar Davies became president. If the presumption, holds it could mean that the PNP has a definite momentum to win a fifth term. Enjoying a healthy lead mid-way in its fourth term with the economy looking better all the time, the PNP, it seems, will have to lose those elections from here.
Robert Buddan lectures in the Department of Government, Mona campus, UWI. Email: Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm or infocus@gleanerjm.com
