John Rapley
LATE LAST month, the government of the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan became the latest to fall before a popular rising. On the face of it, this appears to be the latest country to succumb to a Western-inspired democratic wave. In this interpretation, the US administration's strong support for democracy, coupled with the pro-democratic activities of West European governments, have emboldened opposition movements to overthrow despotic rulers. Kyrgyzstan's autocratic president, Askar Akaev, was just the latest to go.
Among the previous dominoes were Georgia and Ukraine. In both cases, Westernising opposition movements took on Russian-backed governments, and Moscow ended up the loser. Some might be tempted to see such democratic risings as the last stands of the Cold War: Moscow's influence retreats first from the world, then from Eastern Europe, and finally from its 'near-abroad'.
In fact, the pro-demo-cracy/anti-Moscow template, however relevant it might have been in Georgia and Ukraine, probably doesn't apply to Kyrgyzstan. For starters, there was not much of an organised opposition. The anti-Akaev protests really began as spontaneous outpourings of discontent at the country's economic slump. Thus, they emerged from the most economically-deprived region of the country, the south. Only when the government responded to the demonstrators with violence did the protesters demand its overthrow.
DEMOCRACY VERSUS AUTOCRACY
Even then, it would be hard to portray this as a case of democracy versus autocracy. Like the other four Central Asian republics Kazakhstan, Turk-menistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan was largely a creation of the old Soviet Union. It came reluctantly to independence. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, all five republics woke up to find themselves abandoned by Moscow.
Lacking much in the way of civil societies, these countries tended to withdraw into the ways of the Soviet era. Accordingly, their politics ranged from the autocratic to what the journalist Vicken Cheterian has called the "Stalinist theme park" of Turkmenistan, where the president-for-life's picture is omnipresent and all students and civil servants are expected to read his writings.
Thus, to speak of a democratic opposition especially in societies where significant nomadism still inhibits the development of settled political organisations seems a bit premature. Indeed, of the five Central Asian republics, Kyrgyzstan had gone the furthest down the liberalisation road. However, corruption and a stumbling economy eventually turned the people against their leader. Nevertheless, it is not clear that the newly-installed government has a plan to lead the country out of its quagmire.
MORE COMMON GROUND
Besides, to see the Kyrgyz revolt as one more advance for Washington, and one more retreat for Moscow, simplifies a complex scenario. In truth, Moscow and Washington find more common ground in Central Asia than they did in either Georgia or Ukraine (indeed, both countries maintain military bases in the country). And they are united by two common foes.
One is radical Islam. Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan all border Afghanistan, and could not escape the influence of the Taliban next door. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, in particular, confront domestic Islamist movements. As for Kyrgyzstan, it borders the Uighur region of western China, where a Muslim minority has been struggling for independence from Beijing. Seeing as both Washing-ton and Moscow are dealing with the threat of radical Islam the Americans with al-Qaeda, the Russians with Chechnya they can easily find common ground along the Central Asian front.
Equally, both powers regard the growing Chinese presence in the region with suspicion. As it has been doing across much of the world, China has been extending its economic influence throughout the region, and in particular is trying to lock up supplies of oil. Neither the U.S. nor Russia is happy about this.
Thus, whereas over Georgia and Ukraine the Americans and Russians parted company the Americans supported the opposition, the Russians the government over Kyrgyzstan their differences were few. Russian president Vladimir Putin, while granting Askar Akaev exile, was quick to announce he could do business with the new government in Bishkek.
Rumblings of discontent are palpable in Central Asia, but it is not yet time to declare the democratic revolution begun. If anything, the revolution if and when it comes may bring different forces to power, namely Islamists. And Washington and Moscow are like old chums when it comes to that foe.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
