D.K. Duncan
THE MINISTER of Finance stood his ground in his 12th consecutive presentation as he committed the government and himself to a balanced budget.
Explaining the positive practical benefits to be gained from keeping this commitment, Dr. Omar Davies has thrown down the gauntlet for the three heavyweight Opposition spokesmen to pick up during the course of the budget debate this week.
Audley Shaw is expected to lead the charge followed by the present Leader of the Opposition Ken Baugh. The new Leader of the Opposition Bruce Golding should complete the trio, if all goes well procedurally.
National Security Minister Peter Phillips is scheduled to attempt to assure the country on Wednesday that the war against escalating crime and violence can be won.
SIGNIFICANT HECKLING
As if intent on confirming the beginning of a long election campaign, the Jamaica Labour Party Members of Parliament (M.P.) attempted to throw the Finance Minister off message with significant heckling, moreso in the last few minutes of his presentation.
In front of a gallery packed with secondary school students, and a visiting Bermudan delegation, one wondered about the tactics. The People's National Party MPs will no doubt recall this during this week's presentation by Opposition spokespersons the most vulnerable being the new Leader of the Opposition.
Davies may also relish the second bite of the cherry when he closes the debate next Wednesday, the day after the Prime Minister himself enters the fray.
The review of the economic performance of the last financial year seemed eminently credible. The minister gave figures to demonstrate that the economic targets were on track, only to be derailed by Hurricane Ivan.
Even so, he demonstrated that there was a renewed strength in the economy which compensated for the possibility of a major derailment as was the norm in the last three decades.
Therein, it seems, lay the basis for his assertion that the economy is now in a better state than in recent times. Audley Shaw's critique of the review of the 2004/05 financial year's performance should be interesting.
Are we yet in a position to accept certain statistics as politically neutral? For example was the minister correct to say that for the first eight months of 2004 the inflation rate was six per cent and in the first three months of 2005 it was 1.4 per cent?
If this is so, the out-turn of 13.2 per cent for the fiscal year is demonstrably the result of exogenous factors i.e. Hurricane Ivan during the period September to November.
A careful analysis by the Opposition spokesman on Finance in regard to the macro-economic indicators could be of invaluable assistance to the country. The conclusions to be drawn from these analyses will have a direct bearing on the credibility of the medium terms prospects outlined by Minister Davies.
LEADERSHIP
In a carefully crafted presentation, the minister seemed prepared to anticipate certain criticisms while responding to those already in the public domain.
There was no bending of the knees in response to the obvious concern regarding external creditors being given pride of place in the budgetary mix.
"If you borrow, you must pay" was his simple admonition, before he recounted the recent history leading up to the retiring of debts owed to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Speaking to the audience in and outside Parliament he declared, "Leadership is not for the faint-hearted."
This was linked to his rejection of the IMF's orthodoxy of devaluation as well as the strictures placed on nation-states by the cross-conditionalities of multilateral agencies.
Nevertheless, the message to the new Opposition leadership as well as to aspirants to the PNP's leadership was as clear as a bell and louder than a trumpet.
The details of the financing of the budget seem to have the broad support of most economic analysts.
Many observers feel that a delicate balance has been achieved. The reaction of the general public so far seems difficult to assess. The Opposition have three consecutive presentations to shift the solid ground presently under the minister's feet. One love, one heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former general secretary and Cabinet Minister in the PNP administration of the 1970s.
