John Rapley
THE TEA leaves are being read as to what the future holds as a result of the new pope's election.
Where are the planet's billion-plus Catholics headed, not to mention inter-religious dialogue and the Vatican's influence on world politics?
Quite simply, because of the size of the Roman Catholic Church, as well as its status as the only religion which today has its own state, a pontifical election carries great weight in geopolitics.
Nevertheless, the election of Pope Benedict XVI may ultimately come down to a vindication of the aged Italian adage that you follow a fat pope with a skinny one.
The papacy of John Paul II had been so long and epochal that the cardinals who gathered in the Vatican over the last couple of weeks probably felt they needed a breather before moving forward.
WIN FOR CONSERVATIVES
The German cardinal Joseph Ratzinger would thus have seemed the obvious choice. As prefect of the Vatican's Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith a more palatable name than its laden earlier title, the Holy Inquisition Ratzinger came to be seen as John Paul II's right-hand man.
If John Paul II seemed doctrinaire, Cardinal Ratzinger was even less compromising. He chased down Catholic theologians and bishops whom he considered to have strayed from the doctrines enunciated by the Vatican.
Moreover, he was open in declaring that Christianity, and in particular Roman Catholicism, was superior to other religions.
Although his views are similar to those that were held by John Paul II, the late pontiff generally smothered his hard-line message in his legendary warmth and charisma. Ratzinger, complained his many foes in the Roman Catholic Church, was just an old Inquisitor.
Thus, conservatives in the Church those who believe that their leaders should stake their positions unambiguously and defend them ceaselessly delighted in the ascent of Benedict XVI, the name Ratzinger chose for himself. Liberals, particularly in Western countries, were dismayed.
Nevertheless, the papacy of Benedict XVI may be a little more, and a little less, than conservatives hope.
To begin with, the speed of his selection suggests that he won over the other 'princes' in the College of Cardinals quickly.
That would seem to give the lie to the notion that a rift had emerged within the Vatican, with the conservatives trouncing the liberals. Equally, the fact remains that Benedict XVI is highly unlikely to serve as pope for anything like the amount of time his predecessor did.
For years, the conventional wisdom at the Vatican had been that the cardinals might opt for brevity and continuity in the next papacy. They probably felt the need to wrap up the work of John Paul II before inaugurating another transformative papacy.
PRESERVING CATHOLICISM
Of all the cardinals of the Church, Joseph Ratzinger fit the bill. As Benedict XVI, he is likely to continue the work of solidifying Catholic orthodoxy.
But while he does not share the depth of his predecessor's attachment to the Third World whereas John Paul II saw the future of Catholicism in the poor countries, Benedict XVI is preoccupied with preserving what is left of it in its European heartland his papacy is unlikely to last so long that he will reverse any of John Paul II's moves to augment the presence of Third-World cardinals.
Politically, Benedict XVI will likely maintain the trends begun by his predecessor. In world politics, he will continue to press Catholic countries to support the Vatican's positions on issues ranging from abortion to trade.
He will probably go further than John Paul II did in demanding that Catholic politicians carry their faith into the public domain.
Given his dogmatic Catholicism, many also feared that Benedict XVI might shift away somewhat from John Paul II's aggressive pursuit of dialogue with other faiths.
They worried he would retreat into a 'clash of civilisations' mentality that lined Christianity up against other religions. However, the new pope allayed those fears somewhat in his first papal mass. He
suggested that he would continue the work of his predecessor.
The odds are that in just a few more years, the College of Cardinals will assemble once more in Rome to choose yet another pope. They may well have judged that Benedict XVI was the safest pair of hands to hold the fort until then.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, University of the West Indies, Mona.
