John Rapley
FRANCE'S REFUSAL to ratify the proposed European Union (EU) constitution in Sunday's referendum, while expected, was still dramatic. To read the tea leaves which have popped up in public debates and opinion surveys, the French are not so much saying "no" to Europe, as "not under these conditions."
Nor is their anxiety unusual. Concerns similar to those expressed in France have surfaced in some other founding members of the European Union, notably the Netherlands. Everyone agrees that a significant driver of the French no-vote was a rebuke to an unpopular government. But there appears to be more in play than just that.
A decomposition of the result shows that supporters of the centre-right government voted for the constitution, while the far left and far right important players in French politics were unified by their rejection of the treaty. But significant erosion of support came from the mainstream: while the leadership of the Socialist Party backed the treaty, their supporters drifted away.
More telling was the class composition of the no-vote. Professionals endorsed the treaty, workers and farmers rejected it. This is a major new fault-line in French politics. Moreover, it is not confined to France. We are seeing it around the world, as the winners of globalisation line up against the losers.
Professionals stand to gain from economic integration: it tends to privilege knowledge-intensive jobs, thereby augmenting their incomes. But workers in more developed regions are more likely to lose out to the competition of low-wage workers. Americans worry about losing their jobs to low-paid Mexicans. For Europeans, it is fear of the mythical Polish plumber which looms large in the popular imagination.
As for French farmers, they have benefited immensely from Europe's generous subsidy-regime. This has enabled France to preserve its charming but relatively inefficient network of small family farms. But with the recent addition of several new member-countries in Eastern Europe, some of which have large agricultural sectors, there is a growing recognition that the expanded Union will soon "bust the bank" of the EU's agricultural programme. Add to this the fact that East European farmers can be ruthlessly efficient, and France's agriculturalists have every good reason to fear for their futures.
POPULATION DECLINE
Then there is immigration. Most West European societies face long-term population decline. To supplement their labour forces, Europe's governments have looked to immigrants. Pushing the EU eastwards, and possibly drawing in Turkey as well, makes eminent sense to Europe's governing elites. After all, securing abundant new supplies of labour could help reinvigorate a regional economy which remains moribund.
However, as immigrants begin moving west in search of higher-paying jobs, locals fear losing their identity, not to mention their livelihoods. Politicians on the far right, in particular, have played upon these fears to turn voters against European integration.
Where does the process go from here? The EU will continue to function as it has been doing. The treaty might be reopened for discussion, or it might just be shelved. But while it is safe to say the EU does not face imminent collapse, serious problems have emerged.
In particular, just five years into the experiment with monetary union, the Euro is coming under attack. Italians are starting to blame their recession on the lack of a national currency, since they can no longer devalue their way back to growth. The Dutch indict the Euro for their higher cost of living. And reports this week suggested that in Germany, high-level meetings have raised the possibility of the Euro being abandoned.
That seems unlikely to happen anytime soon. Nevertheless, the European 'project' will struggle to get back on track if political leaders do not take more heed of the concerns of ordinary people. This appears to be a case in which bureaucratic and intellectual elites have run ahead of public opinion.
But allaying the concerns of ordinary west Europeans will not be easy. For at the heart of the matter lies the fact that given existing demographic trends, west Europeans confront a dilemma: pull up the drawbridges, preserve their way of life, and begin long-term economic decline; or integrate, renew, but fundamentally change their identity.
Europe's leaders thought they had found a solution. Voters in France this week rejected it.
John Rapley is a senior lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
