IN LESS than 10 months Jamaica will have a new Prime Minister. The question must therefore be, who will be Prime Minister number seven? The fact that our next Prime Minister will be elected by delegates of the ruling People's National Party makes it quite easy to correctly name a successor to the incumbent party leader. There are five candidates who have thrown their hats in the ring; four of the five are extremely confident of victory.Just under one year ago, I was pretty confident that the race for the PNP presidency was virtually a no-contest, as the leading contender was so far ahead of the rest. However, it is now a very close contest between the two leading contenders, Region 3 Chairman, Dr. Omar Davies, and Vice-President, Portia Simpson Miller. You will ask how did I arrive at such a conclusion. The answer is very clear data gathering right across the board, the delegates' response to questions asked and the numerous calls I have received over the past six months in support of Dr. Omar Davies.
In July 2004, I had predicted Dr. Omar Davies and Robert Pickersgill to be close contenders for the post of Deputy Prime Minister. All this has changed. As Dr. Davies has moved from some distance behind the front runner, during the period July 2004-June 2005 to be well positioned coming into the final 50 metres of what seemed to be a 200 metres dash.
CAPITALIST SOCIETY
It is interesting to note that the gentleman from St. Andrew South now enjoys strong support among the private sector group which undoubtedly is the engine of growth in any capitalist society such as ours. One who aspires to lead can be assessed by one's stewardship in the climb upwards. A potential leader must have a passion for justice, equality and human freedom, one who unites practical political skills, having a firm grasp of basic principles and a broad vision of the future.
Let us now put the stewardship of Omar Davies under the microscope. He won the South St. Andrew constituency on November 30, 1993 in a by-election, polling 99.8 per cent of the accepted ballots. It was virtually a no-contest, South St. Andrew being among the so-called 'garrison' constituencies. He won with a mind-boggling majority in 1997 polling 14,084 votes to the JLP's Dennis Messias' 1,206 and the late John Causwell's (NDM) 55, an absolute majority of 12,823, 91.8 per cent of the accepted ballots.
ELECTORAL PROCESS
The General Election of October 16, 2002 saw the dawn of a refulgent era in our electoral process as every Jamaican at home and abroad hailed the workings of the electoral system as free and fair for the first time at last. What sort of support did Dr. Davies received in St. Andrew South? With the second highest turnout, 76.6 per cent of accepted ballots (Kingston Western 80.5 per cent of A/B). The Region 3 chairman polled 12,225 votes to his JLP opponent Dennis Anthony Messias 1,220, a majority of 11,005, the highest in the island exceeding that of the incumbent for West Kingston, Edward Seaga, on the right by 1,853 and his colleague 'sister' Portia on the left by 1,907, standing in the sea looking to the hills in a northerly direction. What an achievement.
I can recall my two meetings with Dr. Davies at Jamaica House when I became aware of his intention to enter representational politics. In our discussions, I exhorted him to use his integrity and commitment to the development of young people to transform South St. Andrew into one constituency, with special emphasis on the humane treatment of my brothers and sisters living in Rema and most importantly to change the political landscape of the so-called western belt which was then engulfed in political conflict.
Today, there no longer exists enmity between Tivoli and Jungle, I have every reason to believe that the principles that linked the former MP for Kingston West and the St. Andrew South MP will remain firm and unassailable with the advent of Mr. Bruce Golding as the new Member of Parliament for West Kingston. All Jamaica will say, glory to a common cause. While I cannot give Dr. Davies high marks for the country's economic performance over his 12 years as Minister of Finance, I must make the point that he continues to make every effort under very testing and trying circumstances. Given a better productive climate at the workplace, in a detribalised society he would have been met with greater success.
As Prime Minister of Jamaica, should he be accorded such a mandate by the delegates, I have every reason to believe that he would preside over significant economic growth within the next two to three years. This is predicated on the fact that the level of confidence the electorate now has in our electoral system will undoubtedly create an atmosphere of unity of purpose at the workplace. For too long we have been divided due to the failure of the heart of our democracy, our electoral system. It is a well known fact that "a house divided against itself cannot stand", so is a nation that fails to put God at the centre of all things - "unless the Lord builds the house its builders labour in vain" (Psalms 127 v 1).
In my article captioned 'Time for unity of purpose' published in The Gleaner March 14, 1999, I said, "The few parliamentarians who are pulling their weight are so overburdened that they are likely to reach the pearly gates long before they are needed up there". Portia Simpson Miller and Omar Davies were high on that very short list then. Six years later, they are the leading contenders for the leadership of the PNP. I have no doubt that they have a good working relationship and would give the country the kind of stewardship required to see us through a very difficult period, especially with the huge gap that will be left in our political arena by the retirement of the longest serving Prime Minister of Jamaica, The Most Hon. P. J. Patterson. As I said to Mr. Bruce Golding on the night of his victory in the West Kingston By-Election, "you can only achieve success for the whole society if given the mandate by the electorate in 2007, when you abide by the words of the prophet Micah "Act justly, love mercy and walk humbly with your God." This is a must for the next leader of the PNP and by extension, the next Prime Minister of Jamaica.
In closing, let me exhort the next Prime Minister in waiting to build on the strong foundation laid by his or her predecessor. Homeland security is critical to the survival and development of any nation. This has to be priority number one. In our search for social and economic independence, let us build bridges of peace and goodwill in all communities throughout Jamaica. Those who live by the gun must be given an opportunity to turn to a life of moral excellence which is the plank on which to achieve genuine social and economic development as against self destructive actions. Today, we live in a society in which good has a free field against evil and in which people are made great by the fact that they can achieve progress, not as a gift of some outside agency but by their own hard struggle. I am confident that the future of this great nation is secured due to the fact that we still are blessed with men and women who are exponents of democracy and will give the kind of political representation needed to create a nation of justice and equality. Let us therefore be Faithful and True to our God and by so doing, put the needs of God's people first.
Tony Myers is a statistician/political analyst
