Arnold Bertram, Contributor
THERE IS no denying the euphoria in the Simpson Miller camp created by the opinion polls, which confirm her standing as Jamaica's most popular politician and a symbol of achievement for the masses.
As far as her supporters are concerned all that remains is her formal installation in Jamaica House. It is to her credit that her top rating has been maintained from a constituency base which has hardly seen investments of the size that have flowed into Western Kingston and South St. Andrew from the state as well as members of the private sector. As a political personality, she is in a class by herself.
The question is, is this enough to satisfy the leadership profile that decision-makers in the Peoples' National Party (PNP) expect in this age of globalisation? Could those who continue to predict the outcome of the PNP leadership race on the basis of opinion polls be in for a surprise? What is being questioned here is not the findings of Jamaican pollsters, who have indeed built up an enviable reputation for accuracy.
The fact is that none of these polls have been conducted with the delegates who will elect the new president of the PNP at a special conference to be scheduled. While indicators point to an increase in the number of delegates from 1,595 to some 4,500, the list has not yet been confirmed. All of us, including the pollsters, can only speculate at this point in time.
There are, however, some useful indicators which could serve to jolt the memories of seasoned campaigners as well as provide invaluable insights for the uninitiated.
All public opinion polls published before the 1992 presidential elections showed Portia Simpson Miller way ahead of P.J. Patterson. The Stone Poll published in the Daily Gleaner of March 11, 1992, showed Simpson Miller beating Patterson 42 per cent to 24 per cent among PNP voters. The same polled also showed Simpson Miller with 25 per cent of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) support.
THE NAT'L EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
This must have been the basis on which Carl Stone described Patterson " as by far the weakest of the alternatives," and went on to predict "that if he were to get the leadership of the PNP, Seaga would chew him up at the polls."
On the day of reckoning, Simpson Miller's overwhelming popularity attested by the opinion polls, converted to less than one-third of the delegate votes, while Patterson's institutional support within the party secured him a landslide victory with 2,322 votes to Simpson Miller's 756 votes.
This institutional support within the PNP is vested primarily in its National Executive Council (NEC). This 250-member group is perhaps the most sophisticated political institution in the English-speaking Caribbean. For nearly seven decades, it has built its own traditions and culture. Membership in this august body is a symbol of service and loyalty. Three of the most outspoken comrades who have served the NEC faithfully and long, are Harry Douglas, Donald Buchanan and Paul Burke, and all three are at present associated with three different presidential campaigns. I have no doubt that they place their responsibilities to the NEC above their campaign duties. At any critical juncture, their priority is going to be upholding the party's constitution as the basis for zealously guarding its reputation and maintaining its unity.
No leader of the PNP can emerge in opposition to its National Executive Council and its parliamentary group, and the party can only have one such body at a time. Any attempt to replace it, or undermine its pride of place can only end up with the kind of political chaos that has plagued the JLP for two decades. The NEC prides itself on the traditions, leadership and achievements that have earned the respect of Jamaica as well as the international community for over 67 years. Like all other social institutions, it is under pressure to maintain its integrity as opportunists of every hue seek to gain membership and gain influence.
THE CABINET
Let us now look at the standing of the candidates within the critical groupings that comprise the NEC. I begin with the Cabinet for the fact that this is the executive branch of government in which all aspirants come under the closest scrutiny of their colleagues.
It is here that such critical leadership attributes as capacity, teamwork, reliability, grasp of issues, response to emergencies, are placed under the microscope weekly. It is here that members learn the absolute indispensability of the principle of collective responsibility.
Of the seventeen members of the Cabinet, I exclude the party leader, P.J. Patterson and the General Secretary, Burchell Whiteman, since their role of overseeing the election process precludes them from showing support for any of the aspirants. I also exclude the four contenders who are also members of the Cabinet, Peter Phillips, Portia Simpson Miller, Omar Davies and Robert Pickersgill. The fifth candidate, Karl Blythe, is not currently a member of the Cabinet.
Of the eleven remaining, seven support Peter Phillips' candidacy for leadership. Those who observe him closest are clearly impressed with his leadership qualities and are confident in his ability to preside over the increasingly complex decisions with which the Cabinet contends weekly. In addition, it is the Prime Minister in his role as chairman of the Cabinet who is expected to handle the emergencies which inevitably arise between weekly Cabinet meetings.
PARLIAMENTARY GROUP AND COUNCILLORS
I now turn to the Parliamentary group. Of the 34 members of Parliament, we again exclude the party leader and the candidates. Of the 28 remaining, 18 support Phillips. This support is significant for the fact that as Minister of National Security, Phillips is hardly in a position to assist his colleagues with the daily challenges of representation which is their lot. Their decision to support Phillips therefore, must again be based on their assessment of his leadership capacity.
The role of the parliamentary group is even more critical since party presidential elections have become more a means to prime ministerial power than an end in itself. A prime minister can neither be constitutionally appointed without the support of the parliamentary group, nor continue in office without their confidence. It is a nationally-elected body which cannot be substituted by extra-parliamentary popular support. In short, there is no way around winning the support of the parliamentary group.
The councillors represent a much broader group who live daily with the challenges of representation. Of the 12 minority leaders and two mayors in the 12 parish councils, the KSAC and the municipality of Portmore, nine support Peter Phillips, and of the 101 PNP councillors, he enjoys the support of over 50 per cent.
That Phillips, more so than any other candidate, enjoys the confidence of the NEC, is impatient of debate. It is in this forum that they appreciate him most for accepting the challenge of the Ministry of National Security at a time when his outstanding successes in the Ministries of Health and Works and Transportation had made him the leading contender. To the extent that the NEC is the centre of the party, it is Phillips therefore who occupies this centre. Despite its importance, occupation of the centre alone is not enough to secure him victory. He must extend his influence wider by finding the time to interact with delegates and supporters islandwide, despite the intense pressures of the most challenging ministry.
THE PRIVATE SECTOR
There are repeated rumours that Davies by virtue of his control of the Ministry of Finance enjoys the confidence and support of the entire private sector. This rumour is but the latest attempt by a small vocal group from the private sector, with its sights clearly fixed on a wider agenda to gain political capital for their candidate.
In Jamaica, like any other country dependent on private capital investment, the private sector supports the political leadership which is most committed to a market economy, the primacy of private enterprise, the rule of law, and the protection of property. It knows better than to entrust its survival and growth to any single political personality.
CRITICAL TASK
A significant spin-off from the opinion polls for Simpson-Miller's candidacy is the claim that her popularity makes her the candidate with the best chance of defeating Golding. As far as I know, there is no such contest on the cards. In 2007, general elections are due, at which time the PNP will contest against the JLP. For that contest, the most critical task for the PNP will be the rebuilding of its unity and cohesion after the inevitable factionalism of a hard-fought presidential campaign. This is a task for leadership.
For in the forthcoming political contest, it is leadership and team work which will be decisive, not slogan and personality. A vision of the future based on a sustainable programme for national development will always count for more than popular perceptions. If you have any doubt check with P.J. Patterson, the most successful leader in Jamaica's political history.
