THE SUDDEN development of Tropical Storm Dennis and the frenzy of preparation that it has sparked in expectation of its gaining hurricane strength by today, reminds us that to be forewarned is to be forearmed.
Sophisticated scientific methodology has evolved over the years to allow for a fair degree of accuracy in predicting the number of hurricanes likely to be experienced in any given year. So from early May this year scientists at the United States-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) and National Hurricane Centre (NHC) have predicted a 70 per cent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20 per cent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 per cent chance of a below-normal season.
The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes, and between three and five of these becoming major hurricanes.
The scientists cannot, of course, predict when the storm systems will develop or their exact location of origin. So the onus is on people in hurricane zones like the Caribbean to be prepared at all times. Admittedly, relatively few people can afford to have sufficient food or other emergency supplies stocked away for months.
However through various media, people would have been reminded at the onset of 2005 hurricane season in early June. That should have reminded some of us to get our houses in as much order as possible.
Thankfully the municipal authorities had already started to clear some of the drains across the island that were blocked by debris thus helping to mitigate the worst effects of any storm systems that might hit the island. But much more needs to be done. Even if the island is spared the worst effects of a direct hit from Dennis, we should not lapse into complacency. In fact, historically this would be one of the earliest times in the hurricane season for us to be affected. There are yet a few more months to go, so any advantage afforded us by a miss or glancing blow should be used to improve on our level
of preparedness.
At this stage, having done the best we humanly can, we have no option but to hunker down and prepare to ride out the storm and pray for providential help.
THE OPINIONS ON THIS PAGE, EXCEPT FOR THE ABOVE, DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE GLEANER.
