John Rapley
THE LEADERS of the world's largest industrial democracies are meeting in Gleaneagles, Scotland. Top of their agenda will be the campaign for African development, and global warming. Expectations are high for breakthroughs. Some observers are already warning that such hopes condemn the summit to be a letdown.
The G8 - short for Group of 8 - began in 1975 with a meeting of six countries: the U.S., Britain, Germany, France and Italy. Canada joined the next year, and Russia came on board in the 1980s.
Yet while the annual G8 summits are followed throughout the year by lower-level meetings, the organisation is not a decision-making body that can impose changes on its members. Instead, it aims to coordinate policies among member-countries in such a way as to maintain some coherence among the world's most powerful democracies.
Such coherence is always difficult to achieve, given the competing political interests of the various players. This year's summit will be no exception. However, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, the summit host, has made it one of the cornerstones of what will be his last term of office. He is anxious that it should be a success.
CLIMATE CHANGE
On climate change, the obstacles are well known. Simply put, there is a deep divide between the Europeans and Americans. European economies have long been more energy-efficient than the American one, and were therefore better placed to sign onto the Kyoto protocol. The U.S. was never a fan of the agreement. During his presidency, Bill Clinton paid Kyoto lip service, but little more.
When George W. Bush came to office, he was more blunt. Declaring that the Kyoto treaty would damage the American economy, he rejected it outright. He then added that the scientific jury was still out on the extent of climate-change and its actual causes. So ludicrous was the latter claim that even he has been hinting lately that he is willing to move beyond it.
Nonetheless, it would be too much to expect that this summit will produce any radical breakthroughs towards an agreement on global warming. The other main agenda item, as the weekend's concerts made abundantly clear, is the campaign against African poverty. On this topic, there has been considerable more progress towards agreement.
Tony Blair has made it a top priority for his government to spearhead something like a new Marshall Plan for Africa. Saying that African countries have made considerable progress towards improving the framework of administration, he says the time is right for a big push to kick-start African growth. Sub-Saharan Africa has lagged behind world growth for years. While there have been notable exceptions in some countries, the continent as a whole has seen a worsening of poverty where much of the rest of the planet has seen improvement.
Mr. Blair is calling for a major write-down of debt, and increases in aid. In this, he is backed by a broad popular coalition, which included the performers at the weekend's global network of concerts. He is unlikely to secure as many concessions as he, or the campaigners, would wish. But already, G8 countries have made major pledges on increasing aid.
FARM-SUBSIDY PROGRAMME
What would really help Africa, though, would be a less punitive trade regime, particularly with respect to agriculture. On this, there is not likely to be much progress. President Bush, under pressure to increase his government's aid budget more than he has promised, challenged the Europeans to do away with their farm-subsidy programme. He said the U.S. would stop subsidising its farmers if the Europeans did likewise. He spoke in full knowledge that the French and Germans, in particular, are a long way from countenancing such change (though Mr. Blair would like to see it).
In the end, therefore, the G8 summit is likely going to be a disappointment after the weekend's euphoria. Still, it is worth noting that several items are on the agenda that would have been unimaginable in the 1990s. Aid to Africa has been increasing. The global trade regime is seen by the G8 powers as problematic. The public appetite for debt reduction continues rising.
Progress often comes in small steps. Gleneagles may not produce a leap. But it may yet maintain the forward motion.
John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.
