THE VAST majority of Jamaicans are against the idea of the next general election being called before its constitutional deadline in 2007.
According to the findings of the latest Gleaner Company-commissioned poll, conducted by Don Anderson and his team, just under 60 per cent of the public believe the governing People's National Party (PNP) should do its full term; that early elections would not make a difference to the state of the nation; or that other factors make the calling of an early election undesirable.
"The segments of the population that are mostly against an early election are males, younger persons and lower-income persons," said pollster Don Anderson in his analysis.
Those opposing early elections also expressed fears that crime would increase and the general stability of the country would be ruined.
Those for early elections, mostly upper-income persons, primarily believed there was a need for a change of government.
POLE POSITION
Meantime, the findings revealed that Portia Simpson Miller, Minister of Local Government, Community Development and Sport, and Peter Phillips, Minister of National Security, have maintained pole position for the leading candidates for the soon-to-be-vacated post of PNP president.
Mrs. Simpson Miller leads the bunch with 51 per cent public support, to stay ahead of Dr. Phillips, 21 per cent, according to the poll. Mrs. Simpson Miller has been considered in all previous polls as the stronger PNP candidate to lead the party to victory against Opposition Leader Bruce Golding's JLP.
The survey, conducted by Anderson and his team from Market Research Services Ltd., interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,037 persons aged 18 years and over in all parishes across the island. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, and fieldwork was conducted between June 2 and June 20 this year.
According to Anderson, there has been some speculation that the PNP might want to call an early election but that the possibility of such a move has failed to gain popularity.
TEMPTING
"The Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has (however) expressed the view that the Government might indeed be tempted to call an early election if the indications are there that they are comfortably ahead in the polls," Anderson said.
In August 2004, another Gleaner Company-commissioned Anderson poll revealed that the JLP had a two per cent lead in popular support over the PNP. But, with a plus or minus three per cent margin of error, the JLP and PNP had registered a virtual dead-heat.
If it were to call an early election, the PNP would first have to sort out its new leadership as Prime Minister P.J. Patterson has vowed not to lead the party into another general election.
