Tony Becca
BARRING SOMETHING really surprising, Jamaica are on the way to the second round of the Gold Cup football tournament.
After two matches in the preliminary round, Jamaica have won one and drawn one, South Africa have won one and drawn one, Mexico have lost one and won one, and Guatemala, the other team in the group, have lost twice.
With one set of matches to go in the group, with the top two teams from each group plus the two best third-placed teams moving on, Jamaica, leaders of their group due to a better goal difference, are certain to finish at least third and based on what is happening in the other groups, also to move into the knockout round regardless of the results in the final set of matches in Group C of the preliminary round.
SAFE BET
In the final round it will be Jamaica versus Mexico, South Africa against Guatemala, and with Guatemala going down 3-4 to Jamaica and 0-4 to Mexico, it is almost a safe bet that South Africa, 2-1 winners over Mexico, will hand Guatemala their third defeat to finish with two victories and one draw for a total of seven points.
The big match, therefore, will be between Jamaica, who drew 3-3 with South Africa, and Mexico, and although the result, as far as qualifying for the next round is concerned, will not affect Jamaica, with Mexico, on three points and needing a draw to move on, it should be a close and interesting contest.
And it could even be more than that.
Remembering that the strength of Jamaica's football is usually judged on Jamaica's performance against Mexico, that Mexico must be going for a victory, and that victory over Mexico would mean so much to Jamaica, it could even be an exciting contest.
The question is who will win, and after drawing with the team that defeated Mexico, after scoring not once, not twice, but three times, the odds would seem to favour Jamaica.
Based on the results of past matches between the two teams, however, even though Jamaica have been closing the gap, the odds must be on Mexico to win - even though the match will be played in the USA and not in Mexico City and its high altitude, even though they will not have the advantage of their massive home support.
There are also two other reasons why Mexico, despite losing to South Africa, have a great chance of winning the match.
The first one is that whereas Jamaica edged Guatemala 4-3, Mexico nailed them 4-0. The second one is that Jamaica's defence is weak.
With seven goals in two matches, Jamaica have been scoring goals, and that is good - no question about that.
In scoring goals, however, Jamaica, with six against them - three in each match, have been conceding goals, and against Mexico, who do not usually concede too many goals, that could be disastrous.
In other words, with Mexico unlikely to make the simple mistakes in defence that both Guatemala and South Africa made against Jamaica, the Reggae Boyz, based on their performance before their own goal so far, will be lucky, very lucky, if they concede two or three goals against Mexico and come away with even a draw.
BRILLIANT COMEBACK
To Jamaica's credit, however, against Guatemala in the first match they shrugged off the disappointment, the disadvantage, of playing one man short and won, and in the second match against South Africa they fought back brilliantly for a draw after falling behind three times.
That is character, that is the spirit and the determination which Jamaica will have to take into the game against Mexico, and if they can do that, if they cut down on the number of mistakes when they are under attack, if they can find two or three players to produce two or three shots to match Jermaine Hue's left-foot corker that levelled the score at 1-1 against South Africa and Sunday afternoon, they could tick off a victory that would really rock Mexico - so long the undisputed kings of CONCACAF.
