Reprinted from the Wedneaday Business of May 11
Question: The dust has now settled in the tale of Dyoll. What were the main causes of that company's problems? Could the same thing happen again? Are there any lessons to be learnt? My family owns several properties in the island which are covered by local insurers.
- C.P., Miami, Florida
Answer: "Confidence is the glue that holds the elements of any financial undertaking (except gambling)." This is according to former Prime Minister Edward Seaga, in the foreword (I) of Paul Chen-Young's book about the financial sector crisis during the mid 1990s.
The ex-finance minister made the link between confidence [a.k.a. trust, a word that Dyoll used in its advertisements] and risk-taking.
Your questions are really about whether you should continue to have faith in the local risk transfer (insurance) system. They are tough questions, especially when we are about to face another storm season. It is hard to get information but I am going to try to answer them.
Here are a few facts:
Financial Services Commission (FSC) head, Brian Wynter, said on March 7 that Hurricane Ivan and the related storm surges in the Cayman Islands were seen "as a 1,000 year catastrophe."
That meant that the chances of this event was 0.1 per cent each year.
Leading reinsurance brokers Guy Carpenter, in a report dated September 17, 2004 [discussing the impact of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne on the Caribbean], said that "Ivan's" centre missed Grand Cayman by about 30 miles. Sustained wind speeds ranged from 145 to 165 miles per hour. Wave heights of 20 feet were reported. Was Ivan all that remote?
Insured losses in Cayman were between US$800 million and US$1.2 billion.
REINSURANCE
Dyoll, according to note 30 of its audited 2003 financials, had reinsurance with an 'upper limit of US$12.75 million and US$2.81 million.' Its liability was limited to US$0.25 million and US$0.62 million for Jamaica and Cayman, respectively. What factors led to the selection of the upper limits?
The number and sizes of the claims filed by Dyoll's Cayman clients exceeded the reinsurance limit. The company did not have a surplus of capital to pay for the shortfall between its claims liabilities and the amount it recovered from reinsurers.
None of the other local insurers which also operated in the Cayman Islands suffered the same fate as Dyoll. The results of all insurers in Jamaica were affected to a greater or lesser degree by last year's events.
A number of financial, actuarial and statistical tools are available to help insurers manage risks.
The demise of Dyoll was not caused by a remote event. The company went belly-up due to errors made by its management.
The exposures in the Cayman Islands were underestimated. I also suspect that they scrimped on reinsurance. This is my reading of the situation.
COULD THE SAME THING HAPPEN IN FUTURE?
The official word is that "no other insurance company in Jamaica is similarly exposed as a result of Hurricane Ivan." This is according to the FSC.
However, the insurance system in Jamaica has not been tested since Hurricane Gilbert when claims totalling nearly US$720 million were paid. There were no failures. Claims from "Ivan" amounted to about half that.
Could a more severe event or series of events in the future cause disruption in the system? A "rigorous analysis of insurance companies" has been promised by the regulators.
Has this exercise been started? Will the findings be made public? Your guess is good as mine.
Lessons To Be Learned
Buyers should start paying attention to the financial strength of their insurers. It should not be business as usual.
Dyoll is the second non-life insurer that has gone under in less than 10 years.
The other one was VCI General Insurance. When it collapsed, it left hundreds of persons without motor insurance.
Most of the insurers that operate here are not rated.
There are agencies that examine and analyse the financial performance of insurers.
They also express opinions about insurers" financial strength and ability to meet ongoing obligations.
One agency considers an insurer "secure" when it has
capital to absorb losses with one per cent and 0.4 per cent chance of occurring annually in the case of hurricane and earthquake.
Do your homework. Discuss the matter with your insurance adviser. Bear in mind that, in the final analysis, buying coverage on the cheap could end up costing you more in future years.
Also, that the place where we live is probably more exposed to losses from natural disasters than your current location.
- Cedric E. Stephens provides independent information and advice about the management of risks and insurance. If you need free information or counsel to help you solve a problem write to The Financial Editor or contact Mr. Stephens directly at aegis@cwjamaica.com
