D.K. Duncan
THE RACE for the leadership of the People's National Party (PNP) remains wide open.
The internal campaign has stepped up considerably since the entry of Finance Minister Omar Davies as a candidate some seven months ago. For at least five years and certainly since the 2002 General Election, the choice of a new PNP president was seen as limited to two main contenders, Vice Presidents Portia Simpson Miller and Peter Phillips. Their recent vice presidential campaigns have been conducted with an eye to the anticipated presidential elections. At the PNP's rescheduled annual conference concluded in February, another vice-president and presidential contender, Karl Blythe, capitalised on these manoeuvres and placed first in a five-person contest for the four vice-presidential posts.
PUBLIC OPINION POLLS
Recent national public opinion polls show Simpson Miller and Peter Phillips peaking at 51 per cent and 22 per cent respectively when compared to previous polls (see Table). These Gleaner-commissioned Don Anderson polls also showed leading Vice-President Karl Blythe slipping in the standings from 11 per cent to seven per cent. Region Three chairman Omar Davies overtook the vice-president, recording the only increase of any significance moving from six per cent to 10 per cent. Just over one year ago Davies, as leader, was not on the public opinion radar - suggesting an interesting trend has developed.
THE GROUP DELEGATES DECIDE
However, as Arnold Bertram, in his commentary in The Gleaner column of Sunday, July 3, pointed out "none of these polls have been conducted with the delegates who will elect the new president of the PNP at a special conference to be scheduled". Bertram reminds us that a national poll "published in The Gleaner of March 11, 1992 showed Portia Simpson Miller beating Patterson 42 per cent to 24 per cent among PNP voters". When the internal presidential elections were held shortly after the polls were published, the delegates voted decisively in favour of P.J. Patterson.
At that time, there was also a strong feeling inside and outside the PNP that P.J. Patterson could not defeat Edward Seaga in a General Election. Based on the polls, only Portia could. The winnability issue was decidedly against P.J. One year later, however, after uniting a potentially fractious party, Patterson led the PNP to victory over the JLP in the 1993 General Election. A reasonable conclusion is that national polls do not necessarily reflect the mood of party delegates or how they will vote in internal elections. This is so, in part, because the respondents in national polls include JLP supporters, as well as a significant number of uncommitted persons.
Bertram is off-track, however, when he asserts in the same article that "there is no way around winning the support of The Parliamentary Group (MPs)." It is common knowledge among PNP members that in the PNP presidential elections of 1969, Vivian Blake had a majority support among the MPs. Michael Manley overwhelmed him (376 to 155) in those elections by going straight to the party groups and their delegates.
Furthermore, the situation today is radically different from that of 1992. The number of PNP MPs has declined from 45 in 1992 to 34 in 2005. The councillor core in the party has been reduced by 30% since 1992. This provides an opening.
Statistician and political analyst Tony Myers in The Gleaner of Sunday, June 19, reported growing support for Omar Davies. Basing his observations on "the delegates' response to questions asked and the numerous calls I have received over the past six months in support of Omar Davies", Myers concluded that "it is now a very close contest between the two leading contenders, Region Three chairman Dr. Omar Davies and Vice President Portia Simpson Miller".
With some seven to 12 months to go before the special conference to elect a new PNP president, the candidate who best connects with the delegates could become the next prime minister of Jamaica.
One Love, One Heart.
Gleaner/Anderson National Polls 2004-2005 (Adjusted to nearest round figures)
PNP Leadership Anderson Polls
| Contender | July 2004 | February 2005 | June 2005 |
| Blythe | 5% | 11% | 7% |
| Davies | 5% | 6% | 10% |
| Phillips | 22% | 20% | 22% |
| Pickersgill | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Simpson Miller | 52% | 54% | 51% |
| Others/none | 14% | 5% | 8% |
Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former Cabinet minister and general secretary in the PNP administration of the 1970s. He is associated with the 'Campaign For Prosperity'.
